Economic Forum meets to work out state revenue picture

The Economic Forum meets today to begin hammering out how much money the state will have to spend over the coming two-year budget cycle.

And according to Budget Director Perry Comeaux, the estimates from his staff, gaming, taxation and the Legislative Counsel Bureau are all fairly close - about $3.4 billion.

"Very close as a matter of fact," he said.

"We're not far apart," his counterpart at LCB, fiscal analyst Mark Stevens, agreed.

Members of the forum, a group of private industry experts appointed to review and set the state's revenue projections each budget cycle, are expected to review forecasts by legislative analysts, the budget office, gaming and taxation as well as outside consultants for each of the state's major revenue categories.

But Comeaux said he doesn't expect final decisions, especially on the sales and gaming taxes which combine to make up 85 percent of the general fund, until the Nov. 30 meeting.

If they accept today's recommendations, the $3.2 billion available to the governor and Legislature in 1999 will be projected at $3.4 billion for the coming two year budget cycle.

"We're all reasonable, moderate," said Comeaux. "Overall, I think we're in the 5 to 6 percent range."

He said that money is vital to the governor's plans including to provide state workers with a decent pay raise.

"The twist on it this time around is them (the forum) seeking counsel from others," said Stevens.

Members of the forum have advised both budget and LCB they want a list of outside experts to review the major forecasts and give them additional advice.

Most of the focus will be on gaming revenue estimates which account for about 40 percent of the state's total tax revenues - $560.2 million this fiscal year. The forum's estimate two years ago was about 12 percent low out of caution since no one was sure what the spread of Indian gaming would do to Nevada casinos. Comeaux said there was no real impact and, because tribal casinos still aren't up and running along the major highways leading to Nevada, he doesn't expect much impact in the next two years.

"I think the Indian gaming thing will creep up on us," he said. "I don't foresee any impact for the next couple of years because they've got to get the buildings up first."

Comeaux apparently isn't alone in those sentiments. Gaming revenue forecasts by Gaming Control, the budget office, LCB and outside consultants range from 4.4 to 5.2 percent for fiscal 2002 and from 3.8 to 3.9 percent for 2003.

The biggest single revenue source for the $1.6 billion a year general fund is sales taxes. This fiscal year they will total $610 million. Sales tax forecasts by taxation, budget, LCB and consultants are close - predicting that total will grow from 5.1 percent to 5.9 percent for fiscal 2002.

The meeting begins at 10 a.m. in the Legislative Building.