The expected impact of Indian gaming, which made a cautious Economic Forum underestimate gaming revenues two years ago, resurfac
ed again Tuesday.
Gaming Control Board analyst Frank Streshley presented a cautious forecast of gaming revenues for the coming two-year budget cycle as the forum took its first look at hard numbers.
He pointed out gaming revenues brought in 12.8 percent more in fiscal 2000 - about triple what the forum had projected. He told the forum, a group of private sector experts who review and set state revenue forecasts for the executive budget, the national economy remains strong and visitor volume into Nevada is strong as well.
His boss, Administration Director Perry Comeaux, has said experts in the gaming industry don't see Indian casinos as causing major problems for Nevada casinos in the next two years because they still haven't been built.
"We're cautiously optimistic about the growth in gaming," Streshley said.
But the first question from forum member Steve Greathouse of Las Vegas was about the impact of California Indian gaming.
"The (California) governor says there'll be 43,000 slots," he said. "Others say there'll be 110,000."
"I think the impact is going to be farther out into fiscal 2002," said Streshley. "And when it comes, in the north more than the southern part of the state."
The forum was handed three sets of forecasts Tuesday for each of the state's major revenues including the gross gaming tax, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the general fund, and sales taxes, which bring in slightly more than gaming taxes. They come from the legislative fiscal division, the budget office and the agency which administers each of the different taxes.
While members didn't settle on any specific forecast, they did provide general guidance to Comeaux's staff, which is in the process of building the governor's proposed executive budget. And that guide was almost universally between the highest and lowest projections.
In gaming, the forecasts ranged from a low of $608.5 million in 2002 by the Legislative Counsel Bureau's Fiscal Division to a high of $625.8 million by the budget office. The forum settled on a tentative $620 million in 2002 and $645 million in 2003 - also in the middle.
For sales tax revenues, they picked $672 million in 2002 and $712 million the second year of the biennium - again in the middle.
They did the same for the other major revenue sources the state relies on including the insurance premium tax, business license tax, casino entertainment and cigarette taxes.
The state also collects more than a dozen smaller revenues on everything from liquor taxes to jet fuel. But most of those are agreed upon by the legislative budget office and the agency involved before they are presented to the forum.
Forum Chairman Leo Seevers emphasized that those are "guide numbers" to help Comeaux's staff build the governor's proposed budget and that the final estimates may be somewhat different. All the forecasts are also being shipped out to industry experts such as gaming corporation analysts to review.
The final revenue estimates, which must by law be used to build the state's budget for the coming two years, will be hammered out at the forum's Nov. 30 meeting.