Forecasters conjure up warmer than normal temperatures

RENO, Nev. - People who rushed out to snap up firewood and ski areas that fired up the snow guns may be in for a surprise.

Or they may not.

The National Weather Service, which scoffed last month at the Old Farmer's Almanac and its annual winter prognostications, offered its own venture into long-range climatological dabbling on Thursday.

It said Nevada's winter would be warmer than normal. It also said it has little more than a clue what's really going to happen.

''As we enter a period without the strong influences of El Nino or La Nina, long-term seasonal outlooks become more challenging to produce,'' the nation's top weatherman said.

''We have made significant advances in our climate forecasting skills,'' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Administrator D. James Baker announced boldly.

But with the bureaucratic equivalent of a shrug of his shoulders, he added, ''We have a lot of work to do.''

The Old Farmer's Almanac claims 80 percent accuracy. Baker made no claims whatsoever as he delivered the winter outlook in Washington, D.C.

Closer to home, the meteorologist in charge of Reno's weather service bureau has a terse prophecy:

''Normal,'' Steve Brown said.

''The latest event we had was two years of La Nina and that is waning rapidly, and there is not a sign that El Nino is coming back as of yet,'' Brown said.

''That leaves us with what we may call a normal year,'' he told the Reno Gazette-Journal.

That generally would keep skiers happy with abundant powder in the mountains and would please motorists with sparse snow in the flatlands.

''In a normal year, systems move across the Pacific, slam into the Sierra, dump snow into the mountains, and we get a little bit of precipitation in the valleys,'' Brown said.

Total snow accumulation in the higher elevations may be 300 inches or so, which eventually melts down a couple of feet or more of water. The valleys of western Nevada average 7.5 liquid inches.

''It would be nice to have a nice little snow pack because we're at a little deficit now as far as the water in the rivers and the reservoirs,'' Brown said.

State climatologist John James, who views both El Nino and La Nina with a healthy skepticism, puts even less stock in long-range forecasts.

''It's too early,'' he said. ''The biggest concern is if we get November and December dry, which is what we had in the drought years.''

He's nowhere near predicting a drought, but notes there were seven drought years followed by six wet years, so the odds favor another dry year.

''But this is still October. November is the first winter month. It can go any way,'' he said.