Gore clings to Electoral College lead heading into big debate

WASHINGTON - The presidential campaign is tight and volatile across the political map, with Democrat Al Gore clinging to his lead in the hunt for electoral votes, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.

After a month of seesawing polls and momentum shifts, the Electoral College picture is largely unchanged as the candidates prepare for the first debates this week. Sixteen states plus the District of Columbia are leaning the vice president's way or solidly in his column, putting him at 226 electoral votes - 44 short of the 270 needed to claim the presidency, and 25 votes closer to his goal than a month ago.

Another 21 states with 175 electoral votes would go to Republican George W. Bush. That leaves 13 tossup states with 137 electoral votes.

Republican, Democratic and independent analysts, interviewed in 20 competitive states, said the race is closer than the electoral totals suggest. Polls show that Gore and Bush hold narrow leads in several of their states; that means the slightest momentum shift could reshape the race.

Presidents are selected by the state-by-state electoral count, not the overall popular vote, but Republicans are buoyed by national polls showing Americans split evenly between the two candidates in the runup to the first presidential debate Tuesday in Boston.

''There are lingering questions in voters' minds about each one of these candidates. Polling shows that people are flipping around and changing their views. They're not solidified,'' said Curt Steiner, a GOP strategist in Ohio. ''This debate on Tuesday night is probably one of the most important debates in modern presidential history. A lot of people's minds will be formed in this debate.''

Swing voters will gauge whether Texas Gov. Bush is up to the job after just 5 years in government and whether Gore is likable and trustworthy enough to replace his affable boss, President Clinton.

''I think people would like to vote for George Bush'' because they do not trust Gore, said Robert C. Jubelirer, the top-ranking senator in Pennsylvania, where Gore has taken a solid lead since Labor Day. ''George Bush has to prove to them that he has the stature, the vision and the ability to surround himself with good people.''

One sign of a tight race is tension in both camps; Republicans and Democrats are throwing verbal brickbats at their nominees.

''I find that people are generally disappointed in Bush's public appearances and (his) inability ... to state public positions clearly,'' said Stan Tupper, a former GOP congressman in Maine, where Gore has gained the advantage since Labor Day.

In Michigan, a tossup state that has been moving in Gore's direction, Democratic consultant Ken Brock said the vice president needs to talk more about the soaring economy, education, health care and Social Security.

''The only time we get in trouble is when we start getting distracted,'' he said.

Confident of victory in a Democratic bastion, Gore pulled his ads out West Virginia in September. Now polls show the race for the state is tight, causing local Democrats to wonder if the vice president took their state for granted.

''The surprise is that Gore isn't already overwhelmingly ahead in this state,'' said John Mitchell, a Democratic senator from West Virginia, where the coal mine industry is up in arms over Gore's environmental policies.

Bush is being pressed in the West, where Arizona, Nevada and Colorado are closer than a month ago. Gore may travel to those three Bush-leaning states after the debate if his polls numbers hold steady.

In Florida, a state Bush assumed he would win and can't afford to lose, the Texan has outspent Gore by millions of dollars but is mired in a close race. Republican strategists say Bush is being bled dry; every dollar he spends in Florida in October means one less dollar for traditional battleground states.

Gore's must-win state is California, where polls show him with a solid lead. Bush is spending $600,000 a week in TV ads in the state, not enough to make a serious run at the vice president. Aides say Bush is prepared to double or triple his spending in October, but even Republicans say they will believe it when they see it.

In key Midwest and Great Lakes states, Gore holds an edge in Illinois and Pennsylvania though Bush has gained ground; Missouri and Michigan are as close as expected; Ohio, a state that should be leaning toward Bush, is a tossup; and Bush is doing better than expected in Wisconsin.

Bush is strong in the South, though Gore is doing well in his home state of Tennessee, Clinton's Arkansas and Louisiana.

Third-party candidates Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader are lagging in polls and won't be allowed in the debates. Nader, the Green Party candidate, is still a threat to Gore in a handful of close states.