Ten days to go: Bush claims small electoral lead over Gore

WASHINGTON - George W. Bush has claimed a small lead over Al Gore in the race for electoral votes, with an unusually high number of states up for grabs. The political picture is clouded by two wild cards: Bill Clinton and Ralph Nader.

Ten days before what could be the closest election in generations, Republican and Democrats alike say they can't predict the outcome.

''I have given up trying to look into cloudy crystal balls,'' said Dawn Clark Netsch, a former Democratic nominee for Illinois governor. She was one of more than 70 political activists and analysts in 24 battleground states interviewed by The Associated Press for an analysis of the Electoral College race.

As national polls show Bush opening up a small lead in popular opinion, 25 states with 214 electoral votes are solidly in the Texas governor's control or leaning his way - 56 votes short of the 270 needed to win the presidency. Eleven states plus the District of Columbia favor the vice president for 179 electoral votes.

That leaves 14 states with 145 electoral votes as tossups, but even that understates the campaign's volatility.

More evidence:

- A half dozen or so states assigned to Bush or Gore would slip into the tossup category with the slightest shift in momentum.

- The totals are a mirror image of where Bush and Gore stood before the first debate Oct. 3, when the vice president was on target for 226 electoral votes to Bush's 175. National polls showed the race even at the time, only a modest difference from where they stand now.

- Nearly one in four voters tell pollsters they still may change their minds about who to back. David Wenzel, a Republican and former mayor of Scranton, Pa., said: ''There's a lot of people out there who are not happy with either choice.''

Both candidates have their shortcomings, known all too well by their nervous backers.

Speaking of Gore, Democratic analyst Bill Dixon of Wisconsin said: ''If there's anything people like less than a politician who knows it all, it's one who lets you know it.''

Republican analyst Bill Kraus, who also lives in Wisconsin, said of Bush: ''There's the intelligence question. He's not stupid, but he might be ignorant.''

Their weaknesses may be why Clinton, a non-candidate, and Nader, a minor candidate, are suddenly playing major roles in the campaign.

Convinced that Gore's campaign is sagging, anxious Democrats are urging Clinton to make the case for staying on course for another four years. ''I think it's a no-brainer to have Clinton come in,'' said Kentucky Democrat Terry McBrayer.

The vice president is cool to the idea because he wants to show voters that he is his own man. He also fears that swing voters don't want to be reminded about Clinton's impeachment, an issue that makes Gore himself vulnerable to character attacks.

Clinton believes he can help Gore and Democratic congressional candidates. He will try to mobilize minorities - a task Gore gladly assigned to him - and plans to visit several states in an eleventh-hour blitz next week.

It's the travel that bothers the vice president. He fears the media will pounce on Clinton's trips, drawing attention from Gore's message and reminding swing voters about why they might want a change in Washington in a time of prosperity.

Aides say Clinton and Gore hardly speak to each other. Their staffs are gingerly negotiating the president's role, with Gore trying to keep his boss bottled up.

Nader is another problem.

The consumer activist and Green Party candidate doesn't stand a chance of winning the presidency, but polls suggest he cuts into Gore's liberal base in several key states, including Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. Those six states alone add up to 68 electoral votes.

''The election could turn on Ralph Nader,'' said Gov. Angus King of Maine, an independent who has not endorsed any candidate.

Knowing a good thing when they see it, a moderate GOP group with ties to Bush began airing ads featuring Nader attacking the vice president.

Gore is visiting Nader strongholds such as Madison, Wis., as strategists bank on polls showing that half of Nader's backers don't want to elect Bush.

''I ask you to think how you would feel when you wake up Nov. 8 and Bush has carried Oregon,'' vice presidential candidate Joe Lieberman told voters Friday.

Both Gore and Bush are campaigning on a larger-than-usual battlefield, much of which is traditionally Democratic turf.

Bush is fighting for his political life in Florida and Gore's grip on must-win California is slipping. If those two states follow their historical tendencies - Florida to Bush and California to Gore - the race will be determined in six closely fought Great Lake states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Meantime, voters will be fed a steady dose of negative ads, the parties will engineer frenzied get-out-the-vote drives and both campaigns will tweak their end-game strategies.

Gore aides said they may be forced to air their first ads in California if Bush continues to make inroads. The vice president will increase his ad campaign in Tennessee, hoping to stave off an embarrassing loss in his home state. In Ohio, a state now favoring Bush, Gore is considering a last-minute visit and substantial increase in his ad buy.

With money to burn, Bush is increasing his ad campaigns in Maine and Minnesota - two states that had been leaning Gore but are now tossups.

The up-in-the-air quality of this year's race has both campaigns thinking about extraordinary outcomes, such as the prospect of Gore winning the White House by capturing 270 electoral votes but losing to Bush in the popular vote. The last time that happened was in 1888, when Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland.

A more remote possibility is a 269-269 electoral vote tie, which would throw the election into the hands of Congress. That hasn't happened before, though Rutherford B. Hayes beat Samuel Tilden by one electoral vote in 1876.

Nobody is predicting a history-making result. Then again, this seesawing election is not an easy one to predict. That view was echoed by Ted Jelen, a political scientist in Nevada, who said:

''I wouldn't bet a nickel either way.''

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Ron Fournier is chief political writer for The Associated Press.