It would probably start innocently enough.
A still-burning campfire is left smoldering, a smoking cigarette is casually flicked off a deck railing, or an off-road vehicle leaves a trail of sparks in its wake. The summer day is warm and dry, and gusts from the southwest blow in, fanning the sparks.
Feeding off dead trees and pine needles on the ground, flames quickly spread, climbing manzanita bushes and densely packed small pine trees like a ladder to reach the forest's canopy.
The fire feeds on the abundant fuel, swallowing acres of trees and threatening nearby neighborhoods. As word spreads, panicked residents and tourists clog the main roadways as they try to reach their homes or flee the scene. Firefighters rush to mobilize their resources.
This is the stuff that keeps Tahoe's fire chiefs awake at night.
"There are a dozen days every summer with severe fire danger," said Meeks Bay Fire Protection District Chief John Pang.
Last year's devastating Southern California fires, which destroyed 739,597 acres and 3,631 homes, brought home the high fire danger facing the state, especially heavily forested areas like Lake Arrowhead and Big Bear. The last major fire inside the Tahoe Basin pales in comparison - the 2002 Gondola Fire in South Lake Tahoe burned 673 acres and no residences.
Yet similarities between Southern California and Tahoe exist, putting area firefighters on alert. Could a catastrophic fire strike Lake Tahoe? The answer is yes, but the good news is that local fire districts have a plan of attack.
CAUSES OF FIRE: HUMAN HAND TRIGGERS NATURAL CONDITIONS
Although there are many ways a wildland fire can start, the most common is human accidents. According to Kit Bailey, the U.S. Forest Service fire chief for the Tahoe Basin Management Unit, 70 percent of fires are caused by people.
Most are abandoned campfires. While lightning strikes are common in the fall, they are accompanied by cool, wet weather that make fires easier to put out. Campfires, on the other hand, are most likely to occur during the summer when warm weather and a lack of precipitation contribute to already fire-prone conditions.
For a fire to get out of control, certain elements have to be in place: low humidity, high temperatures and 20 mph dry winds from the southwest.
According to North Tahoe Fire Protection District Chief Duane Whitelaw, there are about 21 "red-flag" days a year in the basin - "days when all the elements of nature are lined up and all that's missing is a fire start."
Steep terrain also helps the spread of fire because as hot air rises, it pre-heats the dry fuels ahead of the flaming front. A fire on a steep grade can spread 16 times faster than one on level ground, Bailey said.
The most susceptible area to fire in North Tahoe is the North Shore, which has more fuel loadings and receives more wind and sun than the West Shore. Bailey estimates 25 percent of the trees in Kings Beach are dead or dying. Dead trees were a major factor in the Southern California fires. In the Big Bear/Lake Arrowhead region, up to 75 percent of the timber stands were dead as a result of a drought-induced bark beetle infestation.
The basin's forest density also puts it at further risk for fire. According to LTBMU spokesman Rex Norman, some forests are at eight times their normal density levels.
ESCALATING LEVELS OF RESPONSE
In addition to the NTFPD, a North Shore wildfire would automatically trigger a response from the federal Forest Service and California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. After determining the fire's flank that posed the biggest threat to structures and lives, ground crews would use hoses to put out the flames while raking away ground fuel to reach dirt. Chain saws and axes would also be employed to put in a scratch line to contain the fire. If necessary, air tankers and helicopters would drop retardant and water or foam to cool the head of the fire.
Residents would be notified of a need to stay in their homes or evacuate. Sheriff's deputies would go door to door, or use the teleminder system, an automatic dialing program that calls people in a certain area.
If the fire continued to rage, NTFPD would request aid from fire stations in Incline Village, Truckee, Squaw Valley, Alpine Meadows and Meeks Bay. Help from these districts would also be needed to cover regular medical emergencies, which normally make up 80 percent of NTFPD's responses.
"While we are battling a fire that is growing exponentially, we also need to maintain forces to deal with new calls," said Whitelaw. "We might have everybody at the incident, but we're thinking about the next alarm."
As the fire blazed, the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services System, a statewide mutual response network, would be triggered. The first level is the Tahoe Basin Operational Area, which includes fire departments from around the lake, Reno, Carson City, Douglas County and Dayton.
Run through Placer County dispatch, the operational area is a pre-arranged system in which fire departments send a set amount of equipment or personnel. If more help were needed, the system would expand to the regional level, the Grass Valley Emergency Command Center. The next tier would be from across California and neighboring states. Some of the 12,000 firefighters fighting the Southern California fires came from as far away as Oregon, Washington, Arizona and New Mexico.
LESSONS LEARNED FROM OTHER FIRES
The Gondola Fire is an example of what a typical basin fire would look like and how it would be fought, said Bailey, who was incident commander during that blaze. Ignited by a discarded cigarette, the fire burned 600 acres in a day and took more than three days and 1,500 firefighters to contain it. The flames reached within feet of condominiums on Kingsbury Grade, and about 300 people were evacuated.
"It's a model for a worst case scenario in the Tahoe Basin," said Bailey. "All the factors came in alignment and the fire headed to a large population center."
Barry Smith 5/17/04 I'd end it above and use the following for a breakout...+
If the Gondola Fire was the quintessential Tahoe fire, the Southern California fires serve as a precautionary reminder.
NTFPD Division Chief Rod Collins was sent to the Old Fire in San Bernardino County, a blaze that burned 91,281 acres and forced the evacuation of 130,000 people. He draws five parallels between the San Bernardino mountain community and Tahoe: widespread urban-wildland interface, heavy rate of forest mortality, few ways in and out of the area, strong, dry winds (although the Santa Ana winds reached up to 150 miles per hour) and a public attitude of "it can't happen here."
Does that mean a catastrophic fire in the Tahoe Basin is a sure thing?
"I guarantee there will be another large, damaging fire in California," said NTFPD Division Chief Bryce Keller. "Whether one happens here is anyone's guess."