Taking Barbaro in Preakness

The middle jewel in horse racing's Triple Crown, the 131st running of the Preakness Stakes, will be contested tomorrow at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Nine 3-year-old horses will be vying for a purse of $1 million over the distance of 1 3/16th miles, which is 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby.

Of the three Triple Crown venues, Pimlico is the most unique because its turns are perceived to be tighter than most tracks, and there is a relatively short final stretch. One might think that would favor a horse that breaks early, then takes the lead and saves ground throughout the race. But speed horses rarely win the Preakness, and since 1982, only two led wire-to-wire.

True closers also rarely win at Pimlico, Pleasant Colony being the last in 1981. With a short stretch run and any speed horses bunching up on the inside, by the time a closer hits the top of the stretch on the outside, the race for first is already over.

So, the winner almost always comes from just off the pace.

Since 21 of the last 22 Preakness winners competed in the Kentucky Derby, that narrows the choices down to a total of three. Almost half of the time, the favorite has won the Preakness, and in 16 out of the last 21 the winner was either the first or second choice.

Winner - Barbaro. In the Derby, undefeated Barbaro stumbled out of the gate, then posted the fastest final quarter since Secretariat. His 6 1/2 length victory was the largest in 60 years. Three of the last four and six out of nine Derby winners went on to win the Preakness.

Also, it's hard to go against Barbaro's trainer and all-around hero Michael Matz. Matz survived a plane crash that killed 111 people, and helped save three children including a baby from the burning wreckage. Matz was a three-time equestrian Olympian, and carried the U.S. flag at the closing ceremonies in Atlanta. His unconventional ways and thinking dispelled the 50-year myth that a horse must race within five weeks of the Kentucky Derby in order to win. He could be the guy to finally train the next Triple Crown champion.

Place - Brother's Derek threw a shoe and went the long way around the Derby track. He's the second favorite and could win this race.

Show - Sweetnorthernsaint stumbled and bumped to 18th early in the Derby, yet finished 7th.

Best of the rest - Bernardini has the best breeding.

Longshot - Greeley's Legacy.

It will be impossible to beat last year's race, when Afleet Alex almost fell at the top of the stretch before going on to win, but we should at least get a closer race than the Derby was.

HOCKEY

Sorry to say it San Jose Shark fans, but Edmonton beating you was good for hockey. That's what you get for booing the national anthem of Canada, where half of your team comes from, and people truly care about everything in the game. Edmonton is Canada's final team remaining, so let them enjoy the Oilers.

Conference Finals - Parity has officially hit professional hockey as all four teams that are left missed the playoffs in 2004, the last year clubs fought for the Stanley Cup.

Predictions - Carolina over Buffalo in 7. Edmonton over Anaheim in 6.

Stanley Cup - Carolina beats my pick New Jersey, so it's time to jump on its bandwagon.

NBA

Even though the pick here was for Detroit to reach the Finals, it would be great to see the talkative Pistons go down in flames here. Technical foul leader Rasheed Wallace has guaranteed wins and called Cleveland's team "dog (poop)," but now the Cavaliers are one win away from advancing.

Predictions: West - As of Wednesday evening, I'm barely hanging on with San Antonio, but if Dallas moves on it's bandwagon time again. San Antonio or Dallas beats Phoenix or the Los Angeles Clippers in 6.

East - Before this year the pick here was for Miami to lose in the Finals, but during the regular season Detroit played much better. Now it's time to jump back to Miami over Cleveland, hopefully, in 7.