When a feeling about a game hits, go with it. That's the advice I gave to a customer last weekend. He asked my opinion about a game while offering his, and I told him you don't need my opinion. Go with your gut feeling.
More often than not if you have a feeling about a game and decide not to act or talk yourself to the other side, you will regret it. If I have a feeling about a game and it ends up being the wrong side, I can live with that. In fact, many times I learn something from it.
Last week the picks were the Falcons and the under in the Broncos vs. Steelers game. Both ended up losing, but I will remember one thing in particular from these losses. The Falcons were favored by 5 points and everyone I spoke to liked the same side of this game, but the line never moved. Normally when one side is so overwhelmingly liked the line moves, we should have seen the Falcons favored by 7 by game time. I have to say with the lack of a line move, I was worried.
So, we can rub some dirt on the wound and look back on the entire body of work, and still be happy. Our season record is still 12-6, a more than respectable mark.
This is the first week that the Sunday night game was not scheduled before the season began. The league and NBC have to be applauded for their choice - the Chicago Bears and the New York Giants.
With the last bye week behind us let us look back. So far, teams coming off their bye week are 16-12, both straight up and against the spread. Week 9 was the first time bye week teams had both won and covered all 4 games.
The first game this week will be the Denver Broncos visiting the Oakland Raiders. The line on this game favors the Broncos by 9 points with a total of 33 1/2. The last two weeks we have seen the Broncos score 31 each week. There are a couple of things we can count on in this game. First, the Broncos know they need to win as many division games as possible and, second, head coach Mike Shanahan enjoys beating the Raiders.
The Raiders have played well defensively this year but they are pathetic offensively. Take the Broncos this week and lay the points.
The Chicago Bears and New York Giants will play the Sunday night game this week in New Jersey. The line favors the Giants by 2 1/2 with a total of 39. The Bears suffered their first loss of the season to the Dolphins last week and will be looking to bounce back. Both teams are good and should be playing in the postseason tournament.
I will take the Bears in this game and will forego the points and take the money line. I always look for value and I believe the Bears coming off of their only loss of the season are good value. The money line should be at least +$1.20, and an interesting fact is the road team has won 5 straight in this series.