Have you ever looked at a game and the spread and scratched your head thinking too yourself, is that line correct? Most of the time if it looks too good to be true it probably is. It's what we call a trap.
Every week there seems to be a least one game to which that label can apply. When I see a line that looks to good too be true, I have to admit, I stay away. This week the game that looks too good to be true is the Colts only giving one point to the Cowboys. How can an undefeated scoring machine like the Colts only be giving a point to the dysfunctional Cowboys? I don't know the answer to that question, but I know enough to stay away. I can live with the outcome of this game no matter what happens, because I will not get involved.
The first game that I will take a look at this week is the Minnesota Vikings at the Miami Dolphins. The opening line favors the Dolphins by 4 with a total of 35, but since the open the spread has dipped to 3 1/2.
The Dolphins started the season horribly, going 1-6, but have won their last two games against tough opponents, the Bears and Chiefs. Last year it took the Dolphins until week 12 to get on track, and if you remember, they closed the season with six straight wins.
The Vikings have lost three straight games, having been outscored 63-27 in those games and their last two losses have been to the 49ers and Packers. The pick here is to take the Dolphins and lay the 3 1/2 points.
The next game is the Chicago Bears visiting the New York Jets. In a bit of scheduling quirk, the Bears will be playing their second straight road game at Giants Stadium. The line on the game favors the Bears by 7 with the total set at 38.
The Jets are coming off an impressive road win at New England and will look to stay in the playoff race. The Bears, with their win last week, now have a two game lead in the NFC and are not only looking to make the playoffs but are also looking toward home field advantage.
I had a tough time deciding which angle to take in this game, but have decided to take the home underdog. The Jets plus the 7 points (maybe more by game time) is the pick, although going over the total was tempting. In the four home games the Jets had this season, they are 2-2 while averaging 24 points a game. Taking a non-conference home underdog worked once before here this season and I like it again. I will still consider going over the total, but I will not make any decision on that until later in the week.
Recapping last week, we split the picks. While both teams won their games, the Broncos did not cover against the Raiders, but the underdog Bears did rebound and win their game against the Giants. The season record now stands at 13-7, that's a healthy 65 percent.
A week from today we will get a special treat with three games on Thanksgiving Day, then the following weekend I will get a special treat as I will be attending the Broncos and Seahawks game in Denver.
I can't wait; it's been more than 10 years since I have been to an NFL game.
Jason Kolenut is the CasinoFandango Race and Sports Book supervisor.