The regular season came and went quickly in the National Football League. Twenty teams have already been eliminated, and only twelve remain in contention for the right to be known as Super Bowl champion. The playoffs begin Saturday with the Wild Card round.
If recent history is any indication, there is not much difference between a Wild Card team and a No. 3 or 4 seeded division winner. In fact, in each of the last two years road underdogs have won three out of four games outright during the Wild Card round. Handicappers who follow trends will be leaning towards taking the underdogs again this weekend.
Kansas City at Indianapolis - Indianapolis allowed over 100 yards rushing in every game this season, finishing last in the league. That's not good news considering All-Pro running back Larry Johnson is coming to town. Kansas City led the NFL in Time of Possession, and a successful running game kills clock and keeps the ball out of Indy quarterback Peyton Manning's hands.
Prediction: Indianapolis is undefeated at home, so it would appear that the Colts will win but not cover the point spread. In a game that matches head coaches that are best friends, the bet is on Kansas City +7 and Under 51 points.
Dallas at Seattle - Due to injuries, this week Seattle was pulling guys off the street to play cornerback, where a rookie and converted safety will start tomorrow. Coupled with Dallas' pass defense being ranked 24th, barring severe weather, this should be an exciting, high-scoring game.
Prediction: If Seattle wasn't in the weakest division in all of football, the Seahawks wouldn't have even made the playoffs, so the pick here is Dallas +3 and Over 46 1/2.
New York Jets at New England - The Jets own the 25th ranked offense and the 20th ranked defense in the NFL, but with help from an easy schedule they still reached the postseason. Credit the youngest head coach in the league and former Patriot assistant Eric Mangini, or as some would say "Mangenius," who should be named coach of the year for his efforts.
Prediction: Patriot quarterback Tom Brady is 10-1 in the playoffs, including a perfect 5-0 at home, so the question is not who will win, but by how much. This is New England's time of year, so I'm taking the Patriots -8 1/2.
New York Giants at Philadelphia - The Giants won the teams' first meeting in September, and led their second contest with three minutes to go before losing by 14. Any game could be retiring running back Tiki Barber's final one, and after his 234-yard rushing performance last week, his team should be rallying around him. Going with the New York Giants +7.
Super Bowl - Before baseball season started I picked St. Louis to go to the World Series, I saw the Cardinals limp into the postseason, changed my mind right before the playoffs started, then watched them win it all. During college football's regular season I predicted USC would lose one of its final four games, I saw the Trojans beat Oregon, California, and Notre Dame easily, changed my mind when they were set to face a mediocre UCLA team, then watched USC lose.
The moral of the story is, never change horses in midstream. I will stick with my preseason pick of Dallas to defeat New England in the Super Bowl. Heck, at least I didn't pick Carolina, Pittsburgh, Denver, Miami, Cincinnati, Washington, etc. like many others did.
BOWL GAMES
There are three bowl games remaining, including the BCS Championship Game on Monday night. The predictions have been as bad this year as they were good last year, but here are some predictions anyway:
International - Western Michigan +7 against Cincinnati.
GMAC - Southern Mississippi -6 against Ohio.
BCS Championship - Ohio State deserves to win the championship. After all, the Buckeyes are undefeated. Head coach Jim Tressel is 4-0 in bowls and already has won a title at Columbus. Ohio State has played in Phoenix four out of the last five years, and the last three times that an undefeated team played a one-loss team for the big trophy, the undefeated team won.
Florida has field goal kicking problems, and head coach Urban Meyer grew up a Buckeye fan. But will the Gators cover the point spread? I'm going to go with Ohio State -7 1/2.