The conventional wisdom says that Democrat Hillary Clinton "won" last Tuesday's presidential primaries and caucuses, but I'm not so sure about that. Although Arizona Sen. John McCain appears to have clinched the Republican nomination, I don't think we'll know who the Democrats' candidate is until the party's national convention in Denver this summer.
Even though many political observers and pundits declared New York Sen. Clinton as the Super Tuesday winner on the basis of her victories in big, populous states like California and New York. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, ran a close second and actually won more states than she did, 13 to 9, showing surprising strength across the country. In fact, with 2,025 delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination, Obama trails Clinton by only 11 pledged delegates, 811-794 - a virtual dead heat at this stage of the nomination process - and he could take the lead by winning "Tidewater" primaries in Maryland and Virginia on Tuesday.
Among the Republicans, Sen. McCain is the prohibitive favorite following former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's premature (in my opinion) decision to suspend his campaign on Thursday. Even though McCain won nine of 21 Super Tuesday primaries or caucuses, including California and New York, Romney prevailed in seven states and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won five key southern states. Nevertheless, McCain now has about 60 percent of the 1,191 delegates he needs for the GOP nomination at this summer's convention in St. Paul, Minn.
McCain captured states that will vote Democratic in the fall and showed weakness in the conservative South, where he must win in order to have a shot at the White House. Huckabee won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virginia while Romney did well in the Mountain West, finishing first in Colorado, Montana, North Dakota and Utah; he also won Minnesota and his home state of Massachusetts and last month, he won big here in Nevada.
McCain backers are urging Huckabee to drop out of the race in order to unify the party, but I think the Arkansan should hang tough through the next round of primaries and caucuses as Republicans search for a "real conservative." The GOP "base" is suspicious of McCain because he often votes with Democrats on issues dear to conservative hearts such as campaign finance reform, tax cuts, and "comprehensive immigration reform," which many of us see as a stealth amnesty program. On that issue, I agree with my more conservative friends.
McCain faces a strenuous uphill battle in order to win over his party's right wing. Ultra-conservative talk show king Rush Limbaugh is lukewarm toward the maverick senator and far-right attack dog Ann Coulter says she'll vote for Mrs. Clinton if McCain is the Republican nominee. So it's evident that Limbaugh, Coulter, Sean Hannity & Co. will be working against McCain from here on out.
THE DEMOCRATS
Meanwhile, Sen. Clinton, who expected to be anointed as her party's presidential candidate by now, is engaged in an exciting mano-a-mano between the first female candidate for president and the first viable black candidate for that high office. The Clintons must guard against playing the so-called "race card" because while former President Bill Clinton enjoys great popularity among African-Americans - author Toni Morrison famously called him "our first black president" - Obama beat Mrs. Clinton among black and youthful voters on Super Tuesday while she won among Hispanics, women and older voters.
The former president, a mixed blessing on the campaign trail, became shrill and combative in recent weeks and was urged to tone it down by leading Democrats including Massachusetts Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, both of whom endorsed Obama, much to the chagrin of the Clinton Machine. Time columnist Joe Klein urged the ex-president to shut up and return to his charitable work.
Conservative pundit Charles Krauthammer asked a key question in a recent column: "Do Americans really want a historically unique two-headed presidency constantly buffeted by the dynamics of a highly dysfunctional marriage?" I remember how the Clintons ran a "two for one" presidential campaign in 1992, and don't want to repeat that charade. In fact, I'd do almost anything to keep Bill Clinton out of the White House.
Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus warned Hillary against playing the victim. "A candidate as strong as Mrs. Clinton doesn't need to play the woman-as-victim card, not even in the 'all-boys club' of presidential politics," Marcus wrote, adding that men attack Clinton because she's the front-runner, not because she's a woman. "Hillary Clinton is strong enough to take these attacks like a man," Marcus concluded, and I agree.
At this point, I think the Democrats will field a Clinton/Obama ticket in November, going up against McCain/Huckabee, but there's a long way to go between now and then. Although I'm not happy about those choices, that's the way our flawed nomination process works. May the best candidates win, although it all depends upon what you mean by "best." Stay tuned.
•Guy W. Farmer, of Carson City, is a semi-retired journalist and former U.S. diplomat who has followed national politics for more than 40 years.