With state cuts looming, analysts look to determine final shortfall

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Facing the necessity of announcing state budget reductions this month, analysts from the budget office met with counterparts from the legislative fiscal analysis division Wednesday to try settle on revenue projections both the governor and Legislature can live with.

The latest word from Gov. Jim Gibbons is that agencies will have to cut back general fund spending by 4.5 percent. It is the revenue projections adopted by the executive branch that will determine how deep the actual budget cuts must be.

The governor has gotten some good news recently as both gaming and sales tax revenues improved in October. Taxable sales were up 4.3 percent, their first gain this fiscal year.

While that still leaves revenue collections $34 million below the Economic Forum's projections, it was a hopeful sign that things may be starting to turn around.

More encouraging, gaming posted a new monthly record in October with total win of more than $1.16 billion. That is a 9.6 percent increase over the same month in 2006.

Through November, actual gaming tax collections were 1.6 percent behind the forecast but that is an artificial gap since most high-end play is done on credit and casinos don't pay the state until they collect on those markers.

Executive branch and legislative fiscal experts have met several times to go over revenue projections but reportedly still have differences in what they believe the economic outlook is, particularly as to how soon and how strongly the state's economy will recover.

The big issue is projecting sales tax revenue since that's where the majority of the shortfall is and sales taxes account for just under one-third of total general fund revenue.

Meanwhile, Gibbons, Director of Administration Andrew Clinger and top state directors were working on the final list of budget cuts. Those cuts will be based on recommendations submitted by state agencies.

A 4.5 percent cut works out to $283 million, but several involved in the process say that total will end up significantly higher. Clinger has said the final shortfall could be $400 million or more.

Gibbons has said he plans to use a big chunk of the state's $267 million Rainy Day Fund to make up part of that gap - but not until the 2009 Legislature convenes.

He said it wouldn't be prudent to use up that emergency fund this early in the process.

• Contact reporter Geoff Dornan at gdornan@nevadaappeal.com or 687-8750.