If the last three NFL postseasons are any indication, there is very little difference among the eight teams playing this Wild Card weekend. Last year all four home favorites won, but two road teams covered the point spread. In the two seasons before, three road underdogs won outright. It appears that anything can happen this weekend, which is normal anyway for the NFL.
Washington at Seattle - The week after teammate Sean Taylor's funeral, quarterback Todd Collins replaced an injured Jason Campbell. Since then the Redskins are 4-0, and Collins has completed five touchdowns with no interceptions. But Seattle is 3-0 at home in the playoffs the last two years, and 7-1 this season. So, I'll take a chance on the over/under total.
With Collins, the Redskins have scored at least 22 points in each game, and averaged 26. Including the debacle at Carolina in week 15, the Seahawks have scored 24 points or more in nine out of ten games. I'll go with the Over 40 points.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh - For Pittsburgh there is good news and bad news. The good news is that the Steelers are 7-1 at home. The bad news is that the one was currently red-hot Jacksonville. In that 29-22 victory in the snow, the Jaguars outgained Pitt by 100 yards in both rushing and passing, and dominated the Time of Possession by 15 minutes. But never has a team won at proud Pittsburgh twice in the same season. Also, this is Jag quarterback David Garrard's first playoff experience, which in the last three seasons has meant an 0-7 record when matched against those with experience. So, again I look to the total.
Jacksonville has not played in a game that has gone under 41 points since October 22. The Jaguars are 9-0-1 Over in that span, and 7-1 Over on the road. Pittsburgh's last four games have each totaled at least 47 points, including the 51 against the Jags. The pick here is Over 39.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay - New York is coming off an emotional battle against undefeated New England. The last seven teams to fall to the Patriots went on to lose also the following week, and quarterback Eli Manning is 0-2 in the playoffs. On the other hand, Tampa Bay basically has been resting for the last two weeks. The South Division winner has reached the NFC Championship Game five consecutive years. But these teams look to be evenly matched, so once again I'll try the total.
The last five Buccaneer games have scored at least 40 points, so with some hesitation the choice here is over 39 1/2.
Tennessee at San Diego - The first time these teams met this year, visiting San Diego overcame a 14-point deficit with eight minutes left, scored a touchdown with only nine seconds remaining, then won 23-17 in overtime. In that game, bad blood was stirred when Charger Shawne Merriman hit Titan quarterback Vince Young unnecessarily, prompting quick retaliation.
This Sunday Young will be experiencing his first postseason game, playing hurt. San Diego has been a good bet lately, having won and covered six straight, and seven out of eight at home. If San Diego were to lose, it would be the only true upset of the weekend, so I'll take a shot on San Diego -9.
Note - Foul weather, of course, can have an adverse effect on Over bets.
Super Bowl - The AFC has won eight out of the last ten Super Bowls. Three out of four teams like New England that started 12-0 went on to win the championship.
Miami in 1972 began the postseason undefeated, and they finished the job. Since 2000, five NFC No. 1 seeds have reached the title game, and all of them lost. My preseason prediction of New England to defeat Dallas will at the very least still be alive next week.
BOWL GAMES
Only three games remain in another endless bowl season. As predicted, the choices here so far have not been the best. But here are some guesses anyway:
International: Ball State +10
GMAC: Tulsa -4 1/2
BCS Championship: Ohio State is 0-8 against the Southeastern Conference in bowl games. But bigger factors will be LSU's spread offense, and the Tigers' huge home field advantage in New Orleans. I'm going with LSU -4.
Congratulations to those people who got LSU and Ohio State future bets at odds as high as 12 and 25 to 1 respectively. You are in excellent position to hedge a little on your wagers.