In the NFL's Divisional Playoff round, one would think that the rested home teams would own a huge advantage. But that's not necessarily the case. Although home bye teams are 53-15 since the league adopted its current playoff format back in 1992, last year all four road teams covered the point spread, with New England and Indianapolis winning outright. Two years ago Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl as a No. 6 seed. These are just more signs that parity has arrived, and anyone has a chance to win on any given weekend.
Predictions: Last week's picks went 3-1. Hopefully we can keep up that pace.
Seattle at Green Bay - Last Saturday Seattle ended Washington's inspired season in a game that was closer than the 35-14 score indicates. Now the Seahawks go on the road, where they are a dismal 1-6 overall in the playoffs and 3-5 this year. Sentimental favorite quarterback Brett Favre and Green Bay, however, are favored by 8 big points. So, it might be better just to bet on the total.
Even though there were two late interception returns for touchdowns, and 36 points were scored in the fourth quarter, last week's game still counts as an Over. The Seahawks have now scored 24 or more points in 10 out of 11 games, and in road contests four out of their last five have totaled 43 or more. Green Bay's last seven games have all gone Over and scored 42 or more points, and the Packers have gone 5-3 Over at home. The pick is the Over 41 1/2.
Jacksonville at New England - Jacksonville survived at Pittsburgh last week 31-29, with the Steelers playing without five starters, twice failing on two-point conversions with one attempted from the 12-yard line, and overcoming an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter only to inexplicably run a quarterback bootleg on third down and six on a potential game-ending drive. The Jaguars' good fortune should now run out against undefeated New England, who is historically 6-1 versus the Jags, and haven't lost a home playoff game since Jimmy Carter was president. But, the spread is a large 13 points, so again it's worth looking at the total.
While scoring 24 or more points in each of its last 11 games, Jacksonville has gone 10-0-1 Over, and 8-1 Over on the road. New England has scored 24 or more in all but one game all year. The most telling statistic hopefully last week was Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 263 yards in the second half alone. I'm going with the Over 49 1/2 points.
San Diego at Indianapolis - Earlier this year in San Diego the Chargers beat Indianapolis 23-21, when Colt QB Peyton Manning threw six interceptions, and usually clutch kicker Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal with 1:30 remaining. San Diego was outgained by over 200 yards, while two Charger touchdowns came on Darren Sproles kick and punt returns, as they held on to what was once a 23-0 lead.
This week Indianapolis will finally be playing at full strength, while San Diego just suffered a potentially gigantic loss when tight end Antonio Gates dislocated his big toe against Tennessee, and is doubtful. At home Indy should run, pass and score at a rate too fast for the Lightning Bolts to keep up. Even though San Diego has won and covered seven consecutive contests, in this revenge game I'll try Indianapolis - 8 1/2.
New York Giants at Dallas - Being division rivals, obviously these teams know each other very well. This year Dallas swept the season series, 45-35 at home and 31-20 on the road. The edge usually now stays with the sweeper rather than shifts to the sweepee, as 11 out of the 17 that were in Dallas' position went 3-0 over their opponents. But considering that game on the opening weekend ended up being New York's only road loss, that proves that the Giants are a quality team. So, once again the total looks to be the way to go here.
In the 45-35 road game, the teams amassed over 900 yards. At New York, Dallas quarterback Tony Romo threw for four touchdowns, making it eight combined in the two games against the Giants.
As for the whole story about Romo being distracted by his recent trip to Mexico with celebrity girlfriend Jessica Simpson, that is just another one of those media-driven non-stories. If Romo was dating O.J. Simpson or Marge Simpson, that would be a real scoop. But dating Jessica Simpson is a bad thing? She appears to be a nice girl with some talent and pleasant features, who stays close to her family. Other than her not being the sharpest tool in the shed, people can't and shouldn't say anything bad about her. Besides, Romo in Mexico with Jessica Simpson a week before a big game is still 100 times better than Drew Bledsoe or Vinny Testaverde spending the week studying alone on the film room's couch.
The biggest question mark is the health of Cowboy All-Pro receiver Terrell Owens, but the hope here is that we have enough of another shootout to go Over 47 points.
Super Bowl - The pressure truly begins for my preseason pick of New England to defeat Dallas.