Analysis: Momentum shifts to Clinton as South Carolina looms

FLORISSANT, Mo. (AP) - Momentum moving her way, Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton must change focus to the tough battle in South Carolina where rival Barack Obama hopes to rejuvenate his candidacy.

Black voters in the state are shifting to Obama, polls have found, despite a longtime loyalty to both Hillary and Bill Clinton, once nicknamed the first black president.

In capturing Nevada's caucuses, she beat Obama among women and showed significant strength among Hispanics, an important and growing segment. Obama won decisively among blacks, who could account for more than 50 percent of the voters in South Carolina's primary this coming Saturday.

Heading into South Carolina, Clinton wants to be in position to gain a major advantage in the more than 20 state contests set for Feb. 5. After Nevada, she touched down in Missouri, one of the most competitive states.

"Now we're back here in the Midwest, where I'm from. I'm so happy to see all of you," Clinton, a Chicago native, said to cheers at a campaign rally in this St. Louis suburb.

Clinton's immediate goal, however, is to hold her own in South Carolina.

Obama is now under greater pressure to win there. The Nevada results spelled trouble for Obama, whose stunning victory in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3 has begun to fade amid evidence of his vulnerability among important demographic groups, especially white, working-class Democrats and women.

He tried to remedy that problem in Nevada, holding economic roundtables with women voters and bringing in his popular wife, Michelle, to campaign with him. But women outnumbered men among caucus-goers, and a sizable majority went with Clinton.

With her Nevada triumph, campaign officials say she will campaign hard in South Carolina and hope for a strong enough showing to pick up sizable number of delegates.

Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Don Fowler, a South Carolinian who recently endorsed Clinton, said he was optimistic.

"I think she's doing very well," Fowler said. "I'm confident with the kind of campaign we're running, next week we're going to win."

Clinton planned to attend a prayer service in South Carolina Monday honoring Martin Luther King's birthday before attending an NAACP rally at the state Capitol and a nationally televised debate in Myrtle Beach. Edwards and Obama also were scheduled to participate in the King Day rally.

Ferrell Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics at the University of North Carolina, said the former first lady needs to compete hard in South Carolina in part to address lingering questions of electability.

"Part of her political challenge is to overcome, if she can, the sense that she is a polarizing figure in the country, particularly in the South," Guillory said.

Obama faces a different challenge.

While he is running to be the first black president, he rarely talks about race while pledging to unite people across the ideological and demographic spectrum. He needs to win South Carolina to restore co-front-runner status without narrowcasting his appeal only to black voters.

If Obama does win South Carolina, both campaigns say they envision a grueling war of attrition for delegates that could potentially extend into early March.

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EDITOR'S NOTE - Beth Fouhy covers presidential politics for The Associated Press. AP writer Ann Sanner in Washington contributed to this report.