This is the weekend of decision for two racing series. The Indy Car Series will determine a champion, with only two drivers still mathematically in the running.
Helio Castroneves closed to within 30 points of leader Scott Dixon last weekend at Detroit's Belle Isle street course, but Dixon will have to have a pretty terrible race at Chicagoland Speedway tomorrow for Castroneves to have a chance at the title. However, a miscalculation on fuel lost the championship for Dixon in the final race of 2007, so you can bet the team isn't going to be taking any chances on that variable tomorrow.
Of course, the points battle would have been 20 points closer if Helio hadn't been popped for blocking at Detroit and forced to give up the lead to eventual winner Justin Wilson. There is absolutely no question that Helio threw a big-time block on Wilson, but it seems like the Indy Racing officials are taking a page from the NASCAR inconsistency playbook in assessing the penalty. In past races, a team has been issued a warning on the first infraction, with a penalty forthcoming only on subsequent violations. Chicagoland should be verrrry interesting.
And the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series won't crown a champion at Richmond tonight, but it will determine the 12 drivers who will be in the running for the 2008 crown. As usual this time of year, NASCAR statisticians have been manipulating spreadsheets to figure out all the possible scenarios of just who will and who won't make this year's Chase for the Championship.
Going into tonight's race, five drivers have already clinched a Chase berth. Kyle Busch, with eight wins, will be the top seed with 80 bonus points when the Chase points are reset. Carl Edwards, with six victories, will have 60 bonus points to start the Chase. Jimmie Johnson will start the Chase with 30 bonus points, while Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Burton will have 10 bonus points apiece, courtesy of one win for each. Of course, 10 more bonus points are available to the winner at Richmond tonight.
Of the drivers who have not yet clinched a spot in the Chase for the Championship, Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick will be included by merely taking the green flag for tonight's race, provided there are no ties for most laps led. Tony Stewart will be in the show if he finishes 36th or better, finishes 37 or better and leads a lap, or finishes 40th or better and leads the most laps.
Mat Kenseth must finish 26th or better, 28th or better leading a lap, or 30th or better leading the most laps. Jeff Gordon has to finish 24th or better, 25th with a lap led, or 28th with the most laps. Denny Hamlin is in the Chase if he finishes 21st or better, 22nd with a lap led, or 25th leading the most laps.
Clint Bowyer is in by far the most precarious position of those currently in the Chase. To clinch, he has to win the race, finish second and lead a lap, or come home third with the most laps led. David Ragan can clinch only if he wins the race and leads the most laps, while Kasey Kahne can only qualify for the show if one or more of those ahead of him have problems and he finishes extremely well. So, barring any serious mishaps to Stewart, Kenseth, Gordon, and Hamlin, the battle for the final chase position really boils down to Bowyer, Ragan, and Kahne.
The Chase for the Championship format is in its fifth year, with 12 drivers eligible this year versus 10 when it was first unveiled in 2004. In that brief history, only three drivers have raced their way into the Chase in the final race leading up to NASCAR's "playoff." Jeremy Mayfield did it in 2004, Ryan Newman in 2005, and Kahne in 2006. Of the four past Champions in contention for a Chase berth this year, only defending Champion Jimmie Johnson has clinched his spot. The others are Gordon, Stewart, and Kenseth. Assuming Kenseth clinches tonight, only he and Johnson will have qualified for all five years of the Chase format.