Mumbai the 'Sum of All Fears'

"The Sum of All Fears" is the title of a best-selling novel and that's how "Time" magazine described the tense standoff between India and Pakistan following late November terrorist strikes in Mumbai (formerly Bombay), India, that killed more than 170 people and left many Indians calling for revenge against Pakistan. It was India's 9/11 and it has worrisome consequences for the United States.

According to Time, U.S. and Indian officials believe that the deadly Mumbai attacks were carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba, an outlawed Islamic terrorist organization based in a Pakistani-controlled area of the disputed territory of Kashmir. Although

President-elect Obama has said he will devote "serious diplomatic resources" to the Kashmir dispute, this long-running problem is probably beyond his ability to resolve. As Time noted, "The Kashmir conflict has defeated the good intentions of plenty of would-be mediators, including the U.N. and several previous incumbents of the White House." This will be an early challenge for Obama's Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, as will the bloody Gaza Strip clashes between Israelis and Palestinians.

What are the implications of the Kashmir dispute for us? Time reports that U.S. officials are concerned that Pakistani fears about Indian retaliation for Mumbai "will take away vital resources from the fight against the Taliban, al-Qaida and other extremist groups along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan."

That would enable those groups to step up their operations against U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, which Obama views as the central front in the War on Terror. Pakistan last Monday temporarily closed a main NATO/U.S. supply route through Peshawar in northwest Pakistan.

"Washington can try to push both sides for some movement on Kashmir," Time concluded, adding that "the U.S. ... may have the leverage to persuade Pakistan to stop shielding militant groups like Lashkar" " leverage that includes nearly $800 million worth of aid to Pakistan, the third largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid after Israel and Egypt.

In a recent editorial the Los Angeles Times opined that Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of assassinated ex-President Benazir Bhutto, "has made a good start" by detaining two suspected commanders of the well-coordinated Mumbai attacks ... (But) now he must persevere against Lashkar-e-Taiba and its support network."

Prof. Brahma Chellaney of the New Delhi Policy Research Center calls for "a major change in American policy on Pakistan - a shift that holds the key to the successful outcome of both the war in Afghanistan and the wider international fight against transnational terrorism." In a recent article Chellaney urged the United States to "stop pampering Pakistan's military" in the search for those who sponsored and executed the Mumbai attacks. He wrote that "the scourge of Pakistani terrorism emanates ... from generals who reared the forces of jihad and fathered Taliban and al-Qaida-linked groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba."

That's a serious indictment of the Pakistani army and the country's controversial Interservices Intelligence Agency (ISI), which is believed to have shared valuable classified information with Lashkar.

Obama's holdover Defense Secretary, Bob Gates, sees Pakistan as an international tinder box. "That nation's western region seethes with threats to the regime, and there are groups that hope terrorist attacks such as those in Mumbai can ... spark a (regional) conflagration," he said in a recent interview.

Gates predicts that U.S. troops will be in that country for many years to come; however, some knowledgeable observers fear that Afghanistan will become another Vietnam - an albatross around the neck of the Obama administration.

It will be fascinating to see how Obama and Mrs. Clinton deal with Afghanistan and Pakistan in a high-stakes effort to quell terrorism and violence in an extremely volatile part of the world.

- Guy W. Farmer, of Carson City, is a semi-retired journalist who served in the U.S. Foreign Service for nearly 30 years.