Gibbons' budget could be his last chance

I have said it before and I'll say it again: If shooting yourself in the foot were an Olympic event, Gov. Jim Gibbons would be a gold medalist.

How in the world the man could allow himself to get into a childish press release fight with his own lieutenant governor and fellow Republican over a ham-handed Christmas Eve appointment to the Tourism Commission which he had absolutely no lawful authority to make is indeed a mystery ranking right up there with the Holy Trinity. At this point you'd almost have to be smoking crack to think the guy has any chance whatsoever of being re-elected in 2010.

That Gibbons has alienated Democrats and the mainstream media, often needlessly and foolishly, is a given. But he's also ticked off many GOP party leaders by being AWOL during the last election cycle, state legislators, the rurals, government employees, plus many women over his messy divorce.

The last core of support the governor still enjoys comes from fiscal conservatives who will stick with him as long as he sticks with his campaign promise to oppose and veto any and all efforts to raise taxes. Which makes his upcoming State of the State address " when he'll unveil his budget proposal for the next biennium " pretty much an "all in" proposition. If, as he himself has suggested he might do, Gibbons includes the teachers union's anti-tourist 3 percent room tax hike in his budget, turn out the lights, the party's over.

The union gathered enough signatures last year to force the Legislature to vote on their tax grab this session. So it would take an act of political insanity for Gibbons to pre-empt the initiative process by including it in his budget.

Instead, he should let the Legislature " if they can muster the two-thirds supermajority vote it needs " pass the tax hike over his veto. At which point Gov. Gibbons would at least be able to credibly run for re-election in 2010 by reminding voters that he made them a promise in 2006 ... and kept it. And he'll be able to campaign on the fact that it was the Democrats (and a handful of misguided "moderate" Republicans) who raised taxes, not him.

Which brings us to the reality of declining tax revenues.

If you don't raise taxes, you have to cut spending. And recall that back in 2003 then-Rep. Gibbons poked then-Gov. Guinn in the eye by publicly chastising him for proposing a $704 million tax hike rather than cutting spending by $704 million. Well, thanks to inflation and roll-up costs that $704 million in suggested cuts back then was probably worth about $1 billion which now-Gov. Gibbons could have or should have eliminated from his budget proposal in 2007.

Instead, however, Gibbons proposed a budget increase of around $1 billion.

Now, if you take away that billion-dollar spending increase and combine it with the nearly $1 billion worth of spending cuts Gibbons called for in 2003, you'd be pretty close to matching the level of tax revenue coming in today. Throw in some cost-cutting and efficiency recommendations from the Nevada Policy Research Institute and Bruce James' SAGE Commission and Gov. Gibbons might even be able to propose a modest tax cut this biennium instead of tax hikes.

And maybe, just maybe, position himself for a second term.

But don't bet the farm on it. At this point one can only shake their head in disbelief as Jim Gibbons consistently refuses to blow an opportunity to blow an opportunity. By my calculations, he has precisely one toe remaining on his right foot. And there's a bull's-eye painted on its nail. Ready! Fire! Aim!

- Chuck Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, a non-profit public policy grassroots advocacy organization. He may be reached at chuck@citizenoutreach.com.