If the pace of business around the offices of the Economic Development Authority of Western Nevada is any indication, hundreds of new jobs are on their way to Northern Nevada in 2009. But at the same time, hundreds of jobs are leaving the region as existing employers scale back their employment or shut down entirely.
So the question is this: Can the region attract more jobs through the front door during 2009 than it loses out the back door? The question is critically important for nearly every sector of the region's economy, from retailing to residential development to health care.
And the news may not be good. Moody's Economy.com, for instance, projects that the Reno area will see a 2.1 percent decline in employment during 2009 " a figure that translates into the loss of nearly 4,800 jobs.
That's a hard slap for a region that was adding jobs at the rate of 7,000 to 8,000 a year during the boom years of 2004-2006. Even in 2007, the region eked out a small gain in employment before losing at least 5,500 jobs in 2008.
Here's why the jobs number is important: Jeff Hardcastle, the state demographer, figures that almost all of the population growth in the region comes as the result of migration from other parts of the country. And the reason for migration? "Probably 85 percent to 90 percent of that is due to job creation,"Hardcastle says. Executives such as those in the homebuilding industry keep a close eye on job growth as a predictor of demand for their products.
"Job creation is absolutely critical in our industry," says Mike Dillon, executive director of the Builders Association of Northern Nevada. Commercial real estate broker Ken Stark, meanwhile, has noted that the only way that the thousands of square feet of vacant office space in the region will return to productive use is through the creation of more jobs to replace those that have been in lost during the recession.
EDAWN executives say help appears to be on the way " perhaps as early as the first quarter of this year.
Tina Iftiger, EDAWN's director of business development, says the organization believes as many as nine new companies representing employment of approximately 875 people could be operating in northern Nevada by April.
EDAWN's pipeline of what it terms "highprobability" projects " companies with at least a 75 percent likelihood of launching new or expanded operations in the region " stands at 150 companies.
Many of them, Iftiger says, are making longterm plans that are unlikely to bear fruit until the latter part of this year.
"People are starting to look at how they want to be positioned when the market turns," she says."They're not going to move tomorrow, but they're looking at where they want to be in the third quarter."
The flow of interested companies is building. In November, for instance, EDAWN hosted visits from 19 companies scouting the area for new facilities. That's up from 14 a year earlier.
For its part, EDAWN is trying to identify the companies most likely to make fast decisions that can have immediate impact on the region's economy.
The question every day, Iftiger says, is this: "How do we help these companies move to success quickly?"
In Carson City, the nonprofit industrial recruiter Nevada Business Connections says it's working with four hot prospects " companies ranging from a software company to a sporting goods manufacturer that would employ 60 people.
But at the same time, the region continues to lose employment in other fields.
Construction employment in Washoe and Storey counties in October, for instance, dropped by 4,200 jobs from a year earlier. Financial firms trimmed their payrolls by 500. Casino and hotel employment fell by 1,000 from a year earlier. And budget woes at city, county and state governments demonstrate that job losses may be spreading into other sectors as 2009 dawns.
The state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation says, however, that the long-term employment picture in Nevada remains bright. Economists for the state employment agency project that job growth across Nevada will average about 2 percent a year through 2016.