At the start of the Sierra League softball season, Carson High softball coach Scott Vickrey predicted that one good team would be left out of the regional playoffs.
Vickrey has been dead on.
The Sierra League standings are a bigger logjam than rush-hour traffic in the Spaghetti Bowl. With four days left in the regular seaosn, only four losses separate the first-place team - Douglas - from the fifth-place team - Damonte Ranch.
Vickrey's Senators find themselves at 12-6, two games behind league-leading Douglas (14-4), which visits Carson today (3:30 p.m.) for the start of a critical three-game series. The teams will play a doubleheader starting at 2 p.m. Thursday in Minden.
Galena currently sits in second place at 13-5, slumping Bishop Manogue, which was swept by Damonte last week, is tied for third with Carson at 12-6 and Damonte is 11-7. Galena and Manogue play this week, while Damonte Ranch plays South Tahoe.
Carson only holds a tie-breaker over Damonte Ranch, so if the Mustangs sweep South Tahoe as expected, Carson must take two of three against the Tigers. The only ways Carson can advance by just winning one game is if Galena could sweep Bishop Manogue or South Tahoe takes a game from Damonte.
"I forecasted there were five good teams and one good team would be left out of it," Vickrey said. "I told the girls at the beginning of the year to make sure it wasn't us. I wanted us to have a spot wrapped up before this series."
Vickrey pointed to the two extra-inning one-run losses to Bishop Manogue, and the loss to Fallon last weekend, as being games he'd love to have back. One might as well throw in the games against Galena where sloppy defense allowed the Grizzlies to win the series and a couple of bloop hits enabled Galena to win the first game of the double-header two days later.
The Senators have to put that in the past. The ball is in their court. Win two and it's on to the post-season. They control their own destiny for the most part, and that's all you can ask for.
Carson is expected to send Cassie Vondrak to the circle, and if the Senators can play a clean game defensively, they have a good shot.
Of course, Carson will need Vondrak, first baseman Lauren Knorzer, third baseman Daria Leid, shorstop Krista Mattice, catcher Kristin Withrow and outfielders Belen Munoz and Lindsey Ashbaugh to keep swinging hot bats.
Douglas coach Andy Mitchell said he doesn't know much about Carson.
"We played right next to them in Sacramento," he said. "Obviously they have had a good year. I'm expecting a strong challenge. It should be a great series."
Douglas will send workhorse Stepahnie Harper to the mound. Harper is one of the most durable pitchers in Northern Nevada, and her pinpoint location could make things tough on Carson's hitters.
"She's done a good job," Mitchell said. "She's done what we needed her to do."
Harper has gotten plenty of support from her offense led by shorstop Emily Weaver (.469), Morgan Blomstrom (.402), catcher-designated hitter Katrina Morgan (.367) and Mia Townsell (.368). Harper has helped her own cuse with ,334 average.
"Morgan is one of the most improved players from last year," Mitchell said. "She hits the ball really hard. She's done a good job at first base."
Mitchell is unsure whether Morgan will be behind the plate this week. Morgan injured her shoulder earlier this season, and she will undergo surgery at the end of the season. Naomi Roberts has done a solid job defensively replacing Morgan.