There are certain predictors of future success in high school football: last season's success (especially down the stretch), number of returning starters and how the schedule sets up to allow a team to learn on the fly.
Those keys are what have made the 2009 season so hard predict for the Dayton and Carson football teams.
The Dust Devils, who play at Yerington at 7 p.m. today, are coming off a 3-7 season in which one of those wins came by way of forfeit, they lost their last four games and were outscored 158-22. But as they reach the mid-way point of this season, they are 2-0 in the Northern 3A and 5-0 overall.
If it weren't for an upstart-North Valleys team, Carson would be the talk of the 4A. The Cougars are off to a 5-0 start, but it is the Senators that have looked like they might end a 45-year streak of near ineptitude, which is how long its been since they won a state or zone title. The schedule was hardly favorable for a team 3-7 last season and made a living off of knocking off the area's bottom-feeders, with wins against South Tahoe, Wooster and Fallon.
This year's team is 3-2 and was ranked No. 1 in the North for the first time since 1995 before taking a heart-breaking 14-11 loss to Bishop Manogue last week. The Senators started off the year with a lopsided win against Spanish Springs and battled defending 4A state champ McQueen to the brink in a 38-34 loss in Week 2. They then walked into Sparks and knocked off top-ranked Reed 54-27 in a game that was all Carson from the onset.
How Dayton has done it:
The Dust Devils could have the best defense in the Northern 3A. They punish offenses for four quarters (most of the time) and wear down smaller teams with their size. The offense has a hard time coming together for four quarters, but haven't needed to be the focal point because the defense has done a good job creating turnovers or giving the offense a short field to work with.
Senior linebacker Ricky Bodine already has 59 tackles and Kyle Firestone leads the team with eight sacks. Additionally, the Dust Devils have an 8:2 turnover ratio.
Unlike the Sentors though, the Dust Devils have built their record on a bottom-dwelling 4A team, a pair of 2A powerhouses and two middle-of-the-road 3A teams. Only when they face Truckee (Oct. 9) and Fernley (Oct. 29), will we really see if they are for real.
How Carson has done it:
Run, run and more run. The Senators have 1,217 yards rushing on the year with four players holding per game averages of 40 yards or better. Additionally, they have scored 15 of their 22 touchdowns on the ground.
They have also scored more points than other team in the North with 174
The defense has been stingy giving up 93 points, which is second in the Sierra League only to Manogue's 57. It has only forced 14 turnovers, including 11 interceptions.
The bulk of the tough matchup are behind Carson. Their next four games are against Wooster, Damonte, Galena and Fallon, who have a combined two league wins among them. The only challenge the rest of the way will come in the season finale against rival Douglas on Oct. 29.
Predictions
Dayton will make the playoffs and not just because the 3A gets six teams in the regional round. They are likely to be the No. 3 seed behind Truckee and Fernley, but could steal a win against Fernley if they can contain senior quarterback Bryce Baker, who has accounted for 77 percent of the Vaquero's offense.
Carson will get its first win over Douglas in eight years, setting it up for the No. 2 seed in the Sierra League. The seed would give them a favorable matchup against a team like Spanish Springs or Hug, setting up a chance for it to win its first playoff game this century.