Northern Nevada retailers can take some solace in the forecast for this holiday season:
Retail sales are projected by the National Retail Federation to decline by only 1 percent this holiday season compared to last year's 3.4 percent drop.
For regional retailers gearing up for the start of holiday shopping season - that would be the Nevada Day holiday at the end of this month - the sales forecast translates into cautious hiring plans.
At best, they'll be hiring a few more seasonal workers than last year, but preparing to move quickly to cut staff hours if holiday sales crater.
Retailers last year reduced seasonal hiring by 62 percent from the year before, according to the National Retail Federation. Mary Lau of the Retail Association of Nevada expects local hiring this season to be at the same reduced level, and said that some stores have begun hiring.
But Lau, president and chief executive officer of the state retail group, added a caveat:
"If we see that there's going to be a bleak Friday instead of a black Friday, then I think you'll see some of the hiring that's done cut back," Lau said.
Some retailers are prepared to cut back the hours of holiday staff if sales are weak. Such is the case at The Legends at Sparks Marina.
Stores at Legends are expected to boost their staffing by about 20 percent for the holidays, but seasonal workers' hours might be 16 a week instead of 20, Legends General Manager Dennis McGovern said.
"By bringing more people on and having less hours they have the ability to react much more quickly to an increase in sales," McGovern said. "Where a manager can simply say, 'This last Saturday was really strong and I anticipate strong sales again this Saturday,' they've got the bodies hired, they just have to get more hours out of them.
"So it does allow them to react quicker without having to go through the whole hiring process, which could take two weeks."
Plenty of workers are available, what with unemployment in Northern Nevada at 12.4 percent. Carolyn Wilson, executive director of Job Opportunities In Nevada, has plenty to recommend.
But thus far, her office has not received much call for holiday help from retailers. It might be too early to gauge, Wilson said.
"We know through the grapevine that places like Target and Macy's and some of the stores at Summit Sierra are doing what I call low-key hiring," Wilson said. "Nothing huge and advertised, and that may be because it's too early. I just don't know."
Larry Hunt, senior property manager at The Summit, said stores at the south Reno center are hiring carefully, seeking people who are passionate about the products in the store.
"Their goal is to find people that will give the best service, so they're looking for real fits," he said. "They're being very selective in their interviewing process."
One of those stores is Gesture Gifts, where managers expect to hire the usual amount of holiday temps - or even more - because it had cut back to a skeleton crew during the year.
"Customer service is incredibly important," owner Holly Evers said regarding the importance of seasonal hires. "It always has been, and we would rather invest in our human capital and the customer experience - we feel strongly about that."
One chain loading up on holiday hires is Best Buy. At the start of this month, 11 to 14 job openings could be found online for the four stores in Reno and Sparks.
"We intend to increase our seasonal hiring this fall, with more positions for this holiday season than we hired in 2008," said Kendel White, a spokeswoman for the electronics chain.
In Carson City, Bryan Hodge, owner of Manger Christian Book Store, said he is "bringing back past staff I had to lay off. We do need extra people just because of the demand load at Christmas."
• Lynette LaCert of Bobo's Mogul Mouse Ski + Board in Reno said the store expects to hire about as much seasonal help as past years.
• Sierra Trading Post in Reno might make holiday hires for the first time. Manager Elizabeth O'Brien the off-price retailer's corporate office will let her know late this month.