Resignation would cause political melee

Sen. John Ensign, dogged by ethics allegations and questions about an extramarital affair with a former aide, has vowed not to resign. But if Nevada's junior senator were to leave office, voluntarily or otherwise, the timing of his departure could set up a dizzying candidate shuffle and help determine Republican chances of retaining the seat.

Once viewed as a rising star of the conservative right with presidential potential, Ensign confessed in June to having an affair with campaign staffer, Cindy Hampton, the wife of a top aide in his Senate office.

Since then, revelations of nearly $100,000 paid to the couple by Ensign's parents and claims by Doug Hampton, his mistress' husband, that Ensign improperly set him up in a lobbying job have led to a preliminary ethics inquiry and a request for a Justice Department criminal probe.

Ensign isn't up for re-election until 2012 and there's no movement afoot to oust him from the seat before then. But an earlier exit could have a domino effect going into next November's general election and beyond as candidates jockey for position or rethink their aspirations.

"We're in unchartered territory, we don't do this very often," said Fred Lokken, political scientist at Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno. "Timing will be everything."

If he stepped down before the close of candidate filings in March 2010, his seat would be subject to an open casting call heading into Nevada's June primary election.

If he were to resign after the filing deadline, state Republican and Democratic central committees would nominate candidates to appear on the November ballot. Election officials were researching how the scenario would apply to minor political parties.

In either instance, Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons could appoint a temporary replacement to fill the void and ensure that Nevada gets its two votes in the Senate during the interim.

Such an appointment could be an advantage going into the November election, said David Damore, a political scientist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

"It would obviously depend on who the appointee is," Damore said. Someone perceived as a political lackey might be scalded by voter backlash.

Gibbons, suffering from low voter approval exacerbated by a bitter, public divorce and accusations of assault by a Las Vegas cocktail waitress, has said he won't appoint himself to Ensign's Senate seat, a move allowed by Nevada's constitution. He's also said he wouldn't appoint former U.S. District Judge Brian Sandoval, his main re-election rival in next year's GOP gubernatorial primary.

But he could change his mind if the timing is right and his own political plans don't pan out, Lokken said. Should he lose the primary or general election and find himself a lame duck, Gibbons could conceivably appoint himself to fill the last two years of Ensign's term.

Whoever is sworn in as governor in January 2011 would appoint someone to fill out the Senate term if Ensign relinquishes his seat after then, an appointment that would give the incumbent a nearly two-year head start on retaining the seat in 2012.

"This could be a very interesting scramble," said former state archivist Guy Rocha. "Everybody's doing their homework."

Other possible Republican appointees, according to party strategists, include former state GOP chairwoman Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, the son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. Both are seeking Reid's seat. Former Rep. Jon Porter, who lost to Democrat Dina Titus in 2008, also is mentioned as a possible Senate appointee.

But Republican strategists say Rep. Dean Heller, R-Nev., would be a front-runner. Heller was considered a leading contender to run against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid before Heller announced his intent this summer to seek re-election to his own seat instead.

Heller cited the Ensign scandal as one reason he did not challenge Reid, saying he would have needed Ensign's help to deflect attacks in what surely would be rough and tumble race.

An Ensign resignation, however, could propel the former state assemblyman and Nevada secretary of state to the Senate without a dogfight, and give him several months, or longer, in the job before facing voters at the ballot box. But it could also be a gamble.

Heller beat Democratic challenger Jill Derby 50-45 percent in 2006 and by a 52-41 percent margin last year in the largely rural 2nd Congressional District where Republican voters outnumber Democrats by about 22,000. He'd be outside that comfort zone, however, in a statewide U.S. Senate race, where Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by about 100,000.

That lopsided count could give Heller pause, and open a door for Democrats to try to claim the seat.

"He did a very good job of raising money in his second term," Lokken said. But a Senate race would require millions of dollars.

"You have to weigh it, and it gets very complicated very quickly. The Democratic Party would see this as a huge opportunity," he said.