Pac-10 teams cashing in on turnovers

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If you want to win in the Pac-10, it helps to have a quarterback who can throw the ball over the San Gabriel Mountains and defensive ends who can bench-press the Golden Gate Bridge.

Strategy also matters, as any TV analyst worth his telestrator will attest.

But the surest route to victory is by creating more turnovers than you commit.

"You can talk about X's and O's, you can talk about coaching, you can talk about talent, (but) when you turn that darn ball over, you're going to probably lose games," Washington State coach Paul Wulff said. "I know people want to look deeper than that, but those are some real simple facts."

One month into the season, the numbers don't lie. Of the 61 football statistics logged by the NCAA, turnover margin may be the most accurate predictor of wins and losses.

Only one of the top 33 teams in turnover margin - 1-3 San Jose State - has a losing record.

Only two of the bottom 19 teams in turnover margin - 3-1 Georgia and 2-1 West Virginia - have winning records.

And the 18th-ranked Bulldogs may be fortunate to have a winning record. They slipped past Arizona State 20-17 victory in Athens last weekend despite committing three turnovers and creating only one. Bulldog blunders led to both ASU touchdowns.

"Normally when you win that battle by two, you win (the game) or put yourself in a position to win, and we did," said ASU coach Dennis Erickson, whose team leads the nation in turnover margin. "Is it frustrating? Yeah, it's frustrating for our team and players."

By blowing a game in which they dominated the turnover battle, the Sun Devils deviated from a clear trend in the Pac-10 this autumn.

In nonconference play, Pac-10 teams are 10-2 when they win the turnover battle, with the losses coming against Boise State and Georgia, both in the Top 25.

In conference games, the team that wins the turnover battle is 5-0.

Even splitting the turnover battle is better than losing it; Pac-10 teams are 22-6 overall when they win or tie in turnovers.

The most notable game in the conference so far turned on turnovers.

Washington beat third-ranked Southern California 16-13 two weeks ago after the Trojans turned the ball over three times in Husky territory - twice on fumbles. The Huskies, meanwhile, didn't give the ball up once.

"Whenever we've been beaten, that's how the scenario's been built: we turn the football over a lot," USC coach Pete Carroll said. "When we don't turn the ball over, we win."

Indeed, USC finished second in national turnover margin when it earned a split of the national title in 2003. A year later, the Trojans led the nation in turnover margin and won an outright national title.

Granted, the Trojans usually have better players than their opponents. But the message is obvious, even for the most talented squads: when it comes to turnovers, it's better to receive than to give.

In an emotionally volatile sport, a turnover can pick up a sagging team and electrify a stadium. Likewise, aside from an injury to a star player, nothing is quite so deflating as a drive-killing fumble or an interception in the end zone.

"A turnover can change a game really quickly," said Arizona coach Mike Stoops, whose Wildcats rank fourth in Pac-10 turnover margin. "There's huge swings."

Sometimes, turnovers seem whimsical - a perfect spiral caroms off a receiver's shoulder pads and into the arms of a nearby safety.

But coaches like to think they can control turnovers, and it's no surprise that most teams devote drills to causing and preventing them.

On offense, coaches harp on the importance of "ball security." Loosely translated, it means that a player who fumbles can expect to spend some quality time on the sidelines next to the coach.

Likewise, defensive coaches work on tip drills with their defensive backs and linebackers and also teach players to try to strip ballcarriers. They draw up blitzes in the hopes that a rattled quarterback will misfire.

"An interception doesn't just happen randomly," Erickson said. "To get interceptions, you've got to put pressure on a (quarterback), your safety or linebacker or whoever makes the play has got to be in the right place, and we're pretty good at that."

To understand how turnovers can turn a team around, take a look at Washington.

New coach Steve Sarkisian has set aside a portion of Wednesday practices for turnover drills. But Sarkisian wants his offensive players thinking about protecting the ball - and his defenders thinking about taking it away - all the time.

"We make a huge emphasis on the football and we talk about it every day," Sarkisian said. "It's everything that we are about. There is nothing more important in our program."

Is the special emphasis on turnovers paying off?

Last season, Washington committed 17 more turnovers than it created. The Huskies ranked 116th out of 118 teams in turnover margin and didn't win a game.

A third of the way through this season, the Huskies rank 56th nationally, with one more takeaway than giveaway. They're 2-2, and Washington fans are talking about a bowl trip.

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AP Sports Writer Tim Booth in Seattle contributed to this report.