Nevada state Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford, D-Las Vegas, needs to pick up two net seats in November to give himself a veto-proof majority in the legislative upper house - a huge advantage if the D's in the lower house retain their veto-proof majority, a distinct possibility.
With veto-proof majorities in both houses, Democrats next year would be able to redistrict Republicans out of power for at least the next 10 years, and probably a generation. Which is why a trio of state Senate seats this year will be, literally, for all the marbles.
Incumbent Republican state Sen. Dennis Nolan lost his seat in the June 8 GOP primary. However, that loss immediately made this an "open" seat in a district with a Democrat majority. So the D's smell blood.
Unless the novice primary winner, Elizabeth Halseth, raises a boatload of money and puts together an almost flawless general election campaign, that seat will likely be one of the two Horsford needs.
Meanwhile, the D's are circling incumbent state Sen. Barbara Cegavske like vultures. Cegavske is a tough campaigner, but never underestimate the power of a multimillion-dollar fear-and-smear ad campaign. Her re-election is anything but a foregone conclusion - and that would be Horsford's much-coveted second seat. Unless....
Unless Republicans can knock off an incumbent Democrat. And realistically speaking, there's only one shot: Sen. Joyce Woodhouse.
Woodhouse became an "accidental senator" in 2006 after Republican U.S. Sen. John Ensign foolishly put up one of his buddies in a primary race against incumbent Republican state Sen. Sandra Tiffany, forcing Tiffany to spend a boatload of bucks defending herself and then not having the time or money to recover before the general.
Since her election, the unimpressive Woodhouse has been a lockstep partisan who takes her marching orders from the teachers union, which is why Horsford is defending her with everything he's got against highly-regarded GOP opponent Mike Roberson.
Indeed, Horsford has sent word far and wide that anyone who dares give Roberson the time of day, let alone a campaign contribution, need not bother knocking on his door next legislative session - a threat most of Carson City's lily-livered lobbying corps has apparently taken to heart.
But you can't keep a good man down ... or indefinitely prop up a political corpse. This race is definitely in play.
Unless Republicans want to risk turning Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford into Senate SUPER-Majority Leader Steven Horsford and be relegated to near-permanent minority status they'd better find their ... er, spines and get Roberson the money and support he needs.
• Chuck Muth is president of Citizen Outreach, a non-profit public policy grassroots advocacy organization.