An election year shuffle caused by term limits means the Nevada Legislature will have the most new members in 40 years when it convenes in February, including a bumper crop of freshman legislators.
The large class of rookies will add to the challenges faced by lawmakers who will tackle a deficit projected by some at $3 billion - about half the general fund budget - as well as the political hot potato of reapportionment - the redrawing of legislative districts required every 10 years based on U.S. Census data.
"Going into this session could be a total nightmare," said Eric Herzik, political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "You've got a new governor. ... new Assembly leader, you have a budget and tax problem that they have to deal with.
"Veto-proof majorities are gone, and just to make it interesting, we're going to do reapportionment," he said. "And of course, this gets done in 120 days."
At least 19 lawmakers will be true freshmen - those who've never served in either the Assembly or the Senate - when the 2011 session begins Feb. 7. The Assembly will have at least 17, the Senate, two. It's the most freshmen since 1995 when there were 22. There could be more, depending on the outcome of the Nov. 2 general election. Early voting begins Oct. 16.
Factoring in the "huge learning curve" for new legislators on how the legislative process works and the logistics involved, and "that's a steep order," Herzik said.
Term limits adopted by voters in 1996 limit legislators to no more than 12 years in each chamber. Some incumbents, including Assembly Minority Leader Heidi Gansert, R-Reno, and Assemblywoman Bonnie Parnell, D-Carson City, chose not to seek re-election.
Some term-limited from one chamber are running for seats in the other, but will be considered "new members" if elected.
Lorne Malkiewich, director of the Legislative Counsel Bureau, said the 28 guaranteed new members are the most since 1967, when there were 38.
"The 1967 Legislature had so many because of a decision that we couldn't have one senator from each county, we needed to reapportion and shift a lot of the rural seats to Clark and Washoe counties," he said.
Democrats control both the Assembly and Senate, having a 28-14 advantage in the Assembly and 12-9 edge in the Senate. It's unlikely they will relinquish their control, but they could lose their supermajority hold in the lower house - they'd only need to lose one seat - making it more difficult to pass tax increases or override vetoes, which require a two-thirds vote to pass.
Like the national midterm elections, backlash against incumbents and independents voters could hold sway in the statehouse races.
In Northern Nevada senate races, Assemblywoman Sheila Leslie, D-Reno, is running for the District 1 Senate seat against Libertarian Thomas Cornell and Republican Phillip Salerno; Assemblyman Don Gustavson, R-Sparks, hopes to win District 2 over Democrat Allison Edwards; and Assemblyman James Settelmeyer, R-Gardnerville, is vying for the Capital senatorial seat against Democrat Kevin Ranft and Independent American Cody J. Quirk.
On the Assembly side, key races include District 13. Incumbent Chad Christensen, R-Las Vegas, didn't seek re-election, instead joining a field of 12 Republicans who sought the nomination in Nevada's U.S. Senate race. Tea party-backed Sharron Angle won that crowded contest to face Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid in November.
In Clark County District 5, Sen. Joyce Woodhouse, D-Henderson, is opposed in her re-election bid by Republican Michael Roberson. Voters in the district are evenly split among the major political parties, but there are roughly 18,000 independents.
Republican Sen. Barbara Cegavske, R-Las Vegas, is challenged by Democrat Tammy Peterson in District 8, where registration divisions are close.
In Clark County District 9, incumbent Sen. Dennis Nolan lost in the GOP primary to Elizabeth Halseth. She faces Democrat Benny Yerushalmi and Tom Jones of the Independent American Party. Democrats have a registration advantage, but the district also has more than 20,000 nonpartisans.
Of the 11 Senate seats on the ballot, candidates in seven are Assembly members either termed out from their own offices or seeking to move up from the lower chamber to fill vacancies left by term limits there.
Assemblyman Mo Denis, D-Las Vegas, is unopposed in his bid to fill the Senate District 2 vacancy left by fellow Democrat Maggie Carlton, who was termed out and is running for Assembly District 14.
Mark Manendo, termed out from the Assembly, is the Democratic nominee in Clark Senate District 7, facing Republican Anthony Wright; Assemblyman Ruben Kihuen, D-Las Vegas, is seeking the Senate seat in District 10 against Republican Henry Tyler and Independent American Glenn Brown; and Assemblyman Joe Hardy, R-Boulder City, is running against Democrat Aaron Ford and Independent American Richard O'Dell for the Senate seat vacated by Warren Hardy, no relation, in District 12.
There are only 1,500 more Democrats than Republicans registered in the district. With nearly 17,000 nonpartisans, the outcome of the race is unpredictable.
Other Assembly races where close registrations, turnout and voter angst could be key for incumbents include Assemblywoman Ellen Spiegel, D-Henderson, in District 21; Assemblyman Lynn Stewart, R-Henderson, District 22; and Melissa Woodbury, R-Las Vegas, in District 23.