LAS VEGAS (AP) - A new statewide poll shows Republican challenger Joe Heck has a 10 percentage point lead over incumbent Democratic Rep. Dina Titus in the race for Nevada's 3rd Congresssional District seat.
The Las Vegas Review-Journal/8NewsNow poll found 53 percent of respondents prefer Heck and 43 percent Titus, the newspaper reported on Sunday.
A similar survey conducted in September gave Titus a 47 to 43 lead over Heck.
"This is the kind of time when these things start to happen," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the survey. "October is usually the month when you see the surge."
The poll queried 400 3rd Congressional District residents, including early voters who had cast ballots along with those likely to vote. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The poll found 57 percent of independents chose Heck and 39 percent Titus.
Heck held Republicans 90 to 8 while Titus' maintained an advantage with Democrats, 79 to 14. Heck also held an advantage with male voters - 60 to 35 - white Titus held and advantage with women voters, 51 to 46.
The poll is the first to show Heck with a lead beyond the margin of error, which suggests Titus could fall victim to an electorate looking to blame incumbent Democrats for the bad economy and woeful unemployment rate.
"A similar story could be written in dozens of districts across the country," said Nathan Gonzales, an analyst with the Rothenberg Political Report. "I think that is a trend and not something specific to Dina Titus."
University of Nevada, Las Vegas, political science professor David Damore also said the shift could be tied to large amounts of outside money that has been poured into the district.
An analysis by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics updated Wednesday found $6.8 million has been spent by outside groups. That's more than any other Congressional District in the nation except for the 7th District in Michigan where $6.9 million was spent.
"These numbers here show you the importance of that outside money, to drive up her negatives," Damore said. "These undecided or soft supporters are going to break against the incumbent."