Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines Jan. 17 against Cleveland. When “Mahomes is on the run, well, he is not only the best now but also, just maybe, the best ever,” writes Joe Santoro
Reed Hoffmann/AP
Sunday’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl is a quarterback matchup of the best ever (Tom Brady) against the best now (Patrick Mahomes).
Therefore, since the game will be played now instead of, say, 5-10 years ago, the pick here to win on Sunday is Mahomes. We’re guessing that a 33-year-old Brady would have been at least a touchdown favorite against a 15-year-old Mahomes a decade ago and not the three-point underdog he will be on Sunday.
The pick here is youth, energy, athletic ability and once-a-generation arm talent. Mahomes is also likely to do three things you've never ever seen before. Sunday promises to be a shootout between two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, since neither team has a great defense or running game. Who is better equipped to escape a pass rush that knows five of every six plays will be a pass? Well, it’s not the 43-year-old.
Mahomes is young enough to be Brady’s son. And when Mahomes is on the run, well, he is not only the best now but also, just maybe, the best ever. Chiefs 34, Bucs 27.
•••
OK, yes, I know. Don’t ever bet against Tom Brady. He’s just 4-5 in his career against the spread in Super Bowls but it feels like he’s 9-0. He’s also 2-0 when he’s been the underdog in a Super Bowl, as he will be on Sunday.
It’s not easy betting against Brady in a Super Bowl. But he’s 43 years old. He should be at home on Sunday, looking for the remote in the cushions of his couch and yelling at Giselle to bring more chips and dip into his man cave. He’s already beaten the odds just by getting to this Super Bowl. Win or lose, his legacy has already improved this season. He’s got nothing to prove on Sunday.
Mahomes will be the one playing with his hair on fire on Sunday. For Brady, Sunday will have all the drama of getting a lifetime achievement award at the Oscars.
•••
The Chiefs have already beaten the Bucs this season in Tampa, 27-24 in late November. And don’t be fooled by that close final score. The Chiefs dominated the Bucs, leading 27-10 going into the fourth quarter. Mahomes passed for 462 yards and three touchdowns, completing 37-of-49 passes. He wasn’t intercepted.
Brady was also productive, but he did a lot of it in garbage time. He was 27-of-41 for 345 yards and three scores (two in the fourth quarter). But he was also picked off twice.
Chiefs’ wide receiver Tyreek Hill caught 13 passes for 269 yards and three touchdowns. Hill won’t likely repeat that performance on Sunday but he will definitely make the Bucs nervous all game long and capture their focus.
•••
This will be the 14th time that the Super Bowl teams have met in the regular season and Super Bowl the same year. The good news for the Bucs is that the team that won the regular season game only has a 6-7 record against that same team in Super Bowls.
Brady has been involved in three of these games with mixed results. His New England Patriots lost to the St. Louis Rams in the 2001 regular season but won the Super Bowl. His Patriots beat the New York Giants in the 2007 regular season and lost the Super Bowl. And his Patriots lost to the Giants in the 2011 regular season and also lost the Super Bowl.
The moral of this story? Regular season games mean nothing when it comes to the Super Bowl.
•••
Mahomes, simply, hardly ever loses. That fact should not be overlooked on Sunday. Mahomes has a record of 44-9 as a starting quarterback. He is 38-8 in the regular season and 6-1 in the postseason. He is 25-2 (5-0 in the postseason) over his last 27 games, a remarkable run of success that already includes a Super Bowl title.
Brady and the Bucs lost five games just this past season. The point spread in this Super Bowl is just three points because the game is in Tampa. Put it on a neutral field and it would likely be five or six.
•••
How much will playing at Tampa be an advantage for Brady and the Bucs? Probably not much. The Chiefs have already won at Tampa this year. There will be 25,000 actual bodies in the stands on Sunday (in addition to 30,000 cardboard cutouts) but a crowd of 25,000, even if it is all Bucs’ fans, won’t bother Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Also, this is a Super Bowl, not a regular season game. The last thing the Bucs might recognize on Sunday might be their locker room and shower. If there’s anything we’ve learned this weird pandemic season, it’s that there is no real home field advantage this year.
•••
Is this the year that former Oakland and Los Angeles Raiders head coach Tom Flores finally gets elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame? It seems so. But is Flores a true Hall of Famer?
Yes, he won two Super Bowls with the Raiders. But that is really the only Hall of Fame-worthy achievement of his career. Flores was just 97-87 in his career and only went to the playoffs five times in 12 seasons. He was 70-35 over his first seven seasons, winning those two Super Bowls. But he was a dreadful 27-52 over his last five years.
The same set of circumstances plagued quarterback Jim Plunkett’s Hall of Fame chances. Plunkett won two Super Bowls (with Flores as coach) but was fairly mediocre the rest of his career. He had a career record of just 72-72 as a starter in the regular season. His teams made the playoffs just four times in his 15 seasons. He also passed for 164 touchdowns and was intercepted 198 times in his career.
•••
A team that has lost five or more regular season games (Tampa was 11-5 this year) has won the Super Bowl just nine times. Brady was the quarterback of two of those nine teams when his 11-5 Patriots beat the 13-3 Los Angeles Rams two years ago in the ugliest Super Bowl in history and his 11-5 Patriots beat the St. Louis Rams in 2001. He was also the losing quarterback in two of those games when his 13-3 Patriots in 2011 lost to the 9-7 New York Giants and his 16-0 Patriots lost to the 10-6 Giants in 2007.
