University of California Memorial Stadium. (Cal Athletics)
The Nevada Wolf Pack football team is about to play its most important season opener in school history Saturday night (7:30 p.m., FS1) against the California Golden Bears.
The matchup has everything. It is against a Pac-12 team. It is on the road. It will open the most hyped and anticipated Pack season since 2010. And California, which has lost its last two meetings with Nevada in 2010 and 2012, will not take the Pack lightly.
All the Bears have heard this summer is about the explosive and dynamic Pack offense. The Bears have read how Nevada quarterback Carson Strong is a possible 2022 first-round NFL draft pick and has a half-dozen or so NFL-quality weapons to choose from on the Pack roster.
Make no mistake, the Pack will be the hunted on Saturday night, not the hunter. And that is the biggest difference between Saturday night and the 14 previous Nevada season openers against a Power Five school since the school joined the Football Bowl Subdivision (I-A) in 1992. The expectations, hopes and dreams this year are higher than any other to open a Pack season with the possible exceptions of 2010 and the late 1940s.
In most of the previous 14 Power Five season-opening matchups, the Pack was expected to get destroyed. And the Wolf Pack didn’t disappoint, losing by 11-49 points in each of its 12 losses. Some of the losses, as expected, were ugly. UCLA in 2013 (58-20), Oregon in 2011 (69-20), Notre Dame in 2009 (35-0), Nebraska in 2007 (52-10), Washington State in 2005 (55-21) and 2002 (31-7) and Oregon State in 1998 (48-6) come to mind. Yes, even Oregon State. But hardly anyone in Northern Nevada was all that surprised by those dozen losses. This year, though, such a result would send Pack Nation into shock.
That is why Saturday night is so important. There have already been whispers of a possible perfect season, Mountain West championship, one or two momentous wins over Boise State, a weekly Top 25 ranking and a New Year’s Day bowl game. Most of those lofty goals would be either destroyed or severely delayed by a lopsided loss on Saturday.
The Pack expectations are not only coming from the fans and the media. They are coming from the players and coaches, too. The Pack, despite being labeled a puzzling three-point underdog in the Nevada sports books, expects to win at Cal on Saturday night. They expect to win big. The program is growing up and maturing. Now all it has to do is act like it on Saturday night.
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The Pack has beaten a Power Five team to open a season before. They beat Purdue 34-31 in 2019 at Mackay Stadium and Cal in 2012 in Berkeley, 31-24.
The Purdue win is likely the most exciting season-opening win in Pack history. Purdue went up 31-14 late in the third quarter and Strong, just a freshman in his first start, engineered a remarkable comeback. The Pack won with a stunning 56-yard field goal by Brandon Talton, another freshman who didn’t even have a scholarship at the time.
The win at Cal in 2012 was also impressive as Stefphon Jefferson rushed for 147 yards and three scores and Cody Fajardo passed for 230 yards and ran for 97.
The wins over Purdue and Cal were met with wild excitement in Northern Nevada. They were the biggest, most impressive victories of those respective seasons (that both ended at 7-6 with losses in a bowl game). A Pack win on Saturday night, although impressive, better not be the biggest win of 2021.
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Why is the Wolf Pack a 3-point underdog on Saturday? Is it simply because the Pack is a Mountain West team on the road against a Pac-12 team? The Mountain West, whether the sports books know it or not, can compete against the Pac-12. The Mountain West, after all, went 5-5 against Pac-12 teams in 2019 (there were no Mountain West vs. Pac-12 games last year because of the pandemic).
Point spreads, though, are all about perception. And the perception around the country, of course, is that the Mountain West is inferior to the Pac-12. High school athletes, after all, when given the choice tend to choose a Pac-12 scholarship over a Mountain West scholarship. That’s likely never going to change but the Mountain West can begin to change that perception this weekend. There will be four Mountain West vs. Pac-12 games this Saturday. Nevada is at Cal, Fresno State is at Oregon, San Jose State is at USC and Utah State is at Washington State.
All of the Pac-12 teams are favored with Cal (three points) the only one favored by under 13 points. There will be nine games this regular season between Pac-12 and Mountain West teams. The Mountain West’s best chances for a victory are Nevada over Cal, San Diego State over both Utah and Arizona and Hawaii over Oregon State. The other five would be clear Mountain West upsets (Fresno State at Oregon and UCLA, UNLV at Arizona State, Utah State at Washington State and San Jose State at USC).
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College football players, as expected, are no longer simply playing for the love of the game. Ohio State has a recruit that just signed a $1.4 million deal with a sports marketing firm. He (Quinn Ewers) originally committed to Texas but the state of Texas (like Illinois and Mississippi) does not allow college athletes to profit from their name, likeness or image. So he went to Ohio State instead and became a millionaire.
It’s happening all over the country at various levels of financial gain. A company that operates gyms that train MMA fighters has offered every player on the Miami Hurricanes $500 a month. Four Pack players (Strong, Daiyan Henley, Elijah Cooks and Kam Toomer) signed to help promote the Reno Aces’ Thirsty Thursday promotions. Yes, college athletes getting paid to promote an event that promotes the consumption of alcohol. Welcome to the new world of college sports. It’s only going to get uglier.
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We understand that numerous college athletes have been getting paid for decades. Even Wolf Pack athletes, according to national sports reports, were getting paid to barely show up at their casino jobs in the l940s. Athletes have been selling their autographs, memorabilia and other things all along. They have been receiving gifts in the forms of cars and, yes, other things.
The difference now is that they can do it out in the open without sneaking around. The problem is not the athletes. The problem and the concern is with the agents and business owners who will have a financial influence on those players. They are already affecting recruiting and this NLI nightmare is just two months old. That influence will now head into the regular season, playoffs and bowl games.
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How big of an influence will the COVID-19 pandemic have on the Mountain West this season? The answer to that question might determine who actually wins the conference title.
COVID-19 certainly had a huge affect on the Mountain West season a year ago. Boise State battled a COVID problem all year long, playing much of the season with a half dozen or more players on the bench because of pandemic protocols. Everyone was affected. Colorado State played just four games. Utah State, UNLV, Air Force, Fresno State and Wyoming played just six games. The conference standings were a mess. Colorado State and Air Force played just four league games. Nevada played eight. Most played six or fewer. Very few fans were even allowed to watch in person. The entire season had all of the excitement of a parking lot at the mall on Dec. 25.
This year (fingers crossed) should be closer to normal. First of all, there is a vaccine now. Teams had spring football practices and scrimmages. The regular season this year has already started. Last year it didn’t start until late October. It was fitting that San Jose State, a program that had two winning seasons in its previous 19, won the title.
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Will UNLV, which went 0-6 last year under new coach Marcus Arroyo, win a game this year? The last time the Rebels won a game (cover your eyes, Pack fans) was 33-30 in overtime at Mackay Stadium on Nov. 30, 2019. UNLV has lost 21 of its last 27 games. The Rebels’ best chance at victory this year might be Thursday night against Eastern Washington at the gaudy Allegiant Stadium. The Rebels are an 11-point favorite. A loss to the Big Sky Conference’s Eagles, though, might mean a 0-12 year for the Rebels. A win might mean 1-11.
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Will Cam Newton find a NFL job? On the field? The former Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots quarterback would clearly be an upgrade for a handful of teams. The Indianapolis Colts are supposedly starting someone named Jacob Eason this year and Washington somehow feels good with Ryan Fitzpatrick as its starter. Newton would even be a solid fit back in Carolina, a team that thinks Sam Darnold can win games in the NFL. Is Drew Lock in Denver better than Newton? Now that Newton is out of the league, just Andy Dalton (Chicago), Blaine Gabbert (Tampa Bay) and Tyrod Taylor (Houston) are active in the NFL that were a part of the highly-touted 2011 draft group that also included Colin Kaepernick, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Ryan Mallett, Greg McElroy and T.J. Yates.
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