The Economic Forum was told Thursday that Nevada’s actual general fund revenue collections are $798 million above what was forecast for fiscal year 2022.
Russell Guindon, chief economist for the Legislative Counsel Bureau’s Fiscal Analysis Division, told the panel charged with projecting general fund revenues for the state he expects that number to actually grow by the end of the year June 30. Many general fund revenue streams are not reported monthly but quarterly or even just annually.
The vast majority of the increase comes from the seven “major” revenue streams, led by the sales and use tax that, through nine months of FY2022, brought in $1.18 billion, a 25.9 percent increase over FY2021. Guindon said that leaves the sales tax just $117 million short of its projected 2022 total. Forum member Marv Leavitt said inflation might be a factor in the sales and use tax increase.
The gaming percentage fee, the second largest general fund revenue generator, was also up sharply — 51 percent — to $871.6 million with 11 months of the fiscal year in the books. Nevada casinos have now reported 14 consecutive months of gaming win over $1 billion.
Altogether, the seven major revenue streams brought in $689.6 million more than forecast this fiscal year, about $3.5 billion so far. The large non-major revenue streams are $69.4 million ahead of projections and the small revenue streams $32 million ahead.
Guindon said he expected the state’s economy to recover but never thought it would come back this fast.
Also on the list of majors are the insurance premium tax and modified business tax — both over $500 million so far this year — the live entertainment tax, real property transfer tax and the commerce tax.
The large non-major revenue streams include such things as the cigarette tax at $109 million and the business license fee at $100 million so far. Altogether, the general fund has brought in $4.4 billion so far this fiscal year.
The Economic Forum is a five-member panel of private industry fiscal experts. Their revenue forecasts must be used by the executive branch and the Legislature in building the state budget. If the governor and lawmakers want more to spend, they have to find it, such as by raising taxes.
The forum focuses on the major revenue streams, leaving the more than 50 other taxes and fees that feed the general fund to the Technical Advisory Committee. The forum reviews and generally approves the TAC’s recommendations.
The forum will get more updates on the status of revenue collections in October and November after the elections before making their forecasts in the first week of December.
The forum’s final act every two-year budget cycle is to meet in the first week of May as the Legislature begins to wrap up and update its projections.
