Pack, on seven-game slide, gets rare Boise State visit

A look ahead to Saturday night’s (7:30 p.m.) Mountain West football game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (2-7, 0-5) and Boise State Broncos (6-3, 5-0) at Mackay Stadium:

HOW TO WATCH, LISTEN: CBS Sports Network, 94.5 FM.

THE SPREAD: Boise State by 21 points. This is the fourth game this season that Nevada has been an underdog by 20 or more points (27-0 loss at Iowa, 48-20 loss at Air Force, 35-28 loss at San Jose State). The Broncos have beaten Nevada by 20-plus points 13 times (seven times in a row from 1999-2006).

THE RIVALRY: Boise State leads, 30-14, winning 16 of the last 18 meetings from 1999. The two rivals, though, have met just three times over the last seven years after meeting 41 times over the previous 44 seasons (1971-2014). Boise State hasn’t played at Mackay Stadium since 2018 and will not return after Saturday until 2025.

LAST YEAR’S MEETING: The Wolf Pack beat Boise State, 41-31, last year at Boise. Toa Taua ran for 124 yards and two touchdowns for Nevada while the Wolf Pack defense held Boise State to just 22 yards rushing on 34 carries, mainly due to six sacks on Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier. The Wolf Pack on Saturday will be looking for its first two-game winning streak against Boise State since winning three in a row from 1996-98.

OLD MACKAY MAGIC: The Wolf Pack used to dominate the Broncos at Mackay Stadium, winning 10 of the first 15 games in the rivalry in Reno. Boise State, however, has won seven of its last eight games at Mackay. The only Bronco loss during that stretch was in 2010, when Nevada rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit to win 34-31 in overtime. The last five games in the rivalry at Reno have all been decided by seven points or less, though Boise has won four of them.

HOW IT STARTED: Boise State beat Nevada 17-10 in the first game of the rivalry on Sept. 25, 1971 in front of 4,000 fans at Mackay Stadium. A Wolf Pack fumble on the opening kickoff led to an 18-yard touchdown pass by Boise’s Eric Guthrie to Al Marshall. Boise State also intercepted four Wolf Pack passes. Nevada lost 10 of its first 13 games against Boise State. The Broncos rushed for 516 yards and outgained Nevada 622-219 in a 56-19 win in 1972 at Boise State.

THE HEAD COACHES: Nevada’s 58-year-old Ken Wilson is 2-7 overall in his first season and has lost seven games in a row. Wilson still doesn't know what it is like to win a Mountain West game (0-5). Boise State’s Andy Avalos, who turned 41 on Saturday, is 13-8 overall and 10-3 in Mountain West games in two seasons. Avalos played linebacker for Boise State from 2001-2004, beating Nevada four times by an average of 43 points and making a total of 24 tackles. Avalos and Wilson were on Oregon’s defensive staff together in 2020, with Avalos serving as defensive coordinator and linebackers coach and Wilson also coaching the linebackers.

NEVADA LAST WEEK: The Wolf Pack was idle last weekend after losing 35-28 at San Jose State on Oct. 29. Nevada, which also was idle the weekend of Oct. 1, has played just four games since Sept. 25.

BOISE STATE LAST WEEK: The Broncos lost 31-28 at home to BYU to snap a four-game winning streak. BSU took a 28-24 lead on an 11-yard touchdown run by George Holani with 6:28 to play but lost with 1:46 left on a touchdown pass from BYU’s Jaren Hall to Puka Nacua.

LONGEST VICTORY DROUGHT IN SCHOOL HISTORY: The Wolf Pack has not won a game since beating Texas State 38-14 on Sept. 3, a stretch that will reach 70 days by Saturday night’s kickoff. It will be the Wolf Pack’s longest amount of time between victories in one season in school history, thanks to the two bye weeks. The Wolf Pack lost seven in a row in 2000 but only went 56 days (Sept. 23-Nov. 18) without a victory. The Pack lost its first nine games in 1964 but won in Week 10 on the 64th day of the season (Sept. 19-Nov. 21). In 1950, the Pack lost its first seven but won on the 57th day (Sept. 16-Nov. 11) of the season. The Pack never won a game at all in 1928 (0-7-1), 1915 (0-5) and 1905 (0-3-1) but those entire seasons lasted for just 50 (1928), 49 (1915) and 42 (1905) days.

WHERE THEY RANK: Boise State is first in the Mountain West in total defense (265.6 yards a game) and rushing defense (104.9 yards a game). The Broncos are also third in scoring (28.8 points a game), points allowed (18.9) and rushing offense (171.2 yards). Nevada is seventh in scoring (20.8), ninth in points allowed (29.1) and total defense (380.4) and 10th in total offense (284.1), rushing offense (108.2) and rushing defense (164.0).

AT STAKE FOR NEVADA: The Wolf Pack’s season will definitely end Nov. 26 at UNLV but the final three games (Boise State, Fresno State, UNLV) offer plenty of incentive. Pack seasons, after all, are measured by the Boise State and UNLV scores. Nevada also needs a victory somewhere in the last three games to avoid setting a school record by losing 10 games in a row in one season. That record is currently owned by the 1964 team, which lost nine in a row.

AT STAKE FOR BOISE STATE: The Broncos, 5-0 in conference play, are competing with Wyoming (4-1) and Utah State (3-2) for the Mountain Division title. Boise State measures its season by conference titles and the Broncos haven’t won the Mountain West since 2019.

WHAT NEVADA NEEDS TO DO TO WIN: The Broncos are led on offense by dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green, who has passed for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns and rushed for 272 yards and five scores. The 6-foot-6, 220-pound Green, who has run the ball 25 times over the last four games for 70 yards and one touchdown, also relies heavily on running backs George Holani (730 yards, eight touchdowns) and Ashton Jeanty (417, 5). The Wolf Pack, whose offense has shown some signs of life the last two weeks with quarterback Shane Illingworth, could find some room to run on the Broncos. Boise State has the best run defense in the Mountain West, but Oregon State (178 yards), UTEP (199), Air Force (175) and BYU (134) did find some holes. The Pack might also find success through the air. BYU, after all, passed for 377 yards against Boise State last week.

WHAT BOISE STATE NEEDS TO DO TO WIN: Boise State simply needs to do what it has been doing the last five weeks. The Broncos seemed to hit rock bottom in Week 4 with a stunning 27-10 loss at UTEP. Since then, however, Boise State has whipped San Diego State (35-13), Fresno State (40-20) and Colorado State (49-10), then outlasted Air Force (19-14) before losing to BYU. The Broncos’ top five games this season in total yards on offense have all come in the last five games.

PREDICTION: Boise State 30, Nevada 17. Strange things have been known to happen to Boise State at Mackay Stadium. See, for example, 2010 and 1990. A Wolf Pack win on Saturday, though, would be the strangest of all, given the current state of the Nevada program. The 1990 and 2010 Pack teams, don’t forget, were among the best in school history and still needed a miracle or two (or four or five) to beat the Broncos at Mackay. But this is a rivalry game, the Pack is at home and Boise State is good and not great, so take the points.