Carson City Community Development graphic showing historical median home prices.
Convened as the Growth Management Commission on Wednesday, Carson City planning commissioners approved the maximum limit for residential building permits for the next two years and estimates for 2026 and 2027, and in doing so they emphasized the need for affordable housing in the community.
In a unanimous vote, planning commissioners recommended the Board of Supervisors use a 3 percent growth rate for allocations, with 2 percent for market-rate housing starts and 1 percent for affordable housing starts targeting workforce needs. The actual number of permits each year was in line with what staff recommended; commissioners just advised 1 percent of those be reserved for affordable housing projects. For 2024, the allocation would be 765 residential building permits. For 2025, the allocation would be 788. Estimated allocations for 2026 and 2027 were at 811 and 834, respectively.
The city’s growth management program, which began in 1978, caps the number of residential building permits to a 3 percent growth rate. The city’s current population is a little more than 58,000, and the 2020 Census put the average persons per household in the city at 2.32. Population growth over the next five years is expected to be 0.7 percent each year, according to the Nevada state demographer. Community Development has projected an additional 8,384 residential units could be developed with existing zoning and Master Plan policies, translating into a population of 76,207 at buildout.
However, over the last five years, permits issued have stayed below available allocations, and allocations do not roll over year to year. Allocations have remained above 600. The year of 2018 saw the highest number of permits issued at 541. Some 277 permits were issued in 2019, 177 in 2020, 201 in 2021 and 350 in 2022.
Residential building permits also are divided into two categories, general property owners and development projects. The latter is for developers proposing 31 or more lots or units. Historically, 43 percent of allocations go to general owners, and 57 percent to development projects. Commissioners followed this precedent Wednesday.
Looking at median home prices over the last 20 years — peaking last year at roughly $500,000 — and hearing Carson City School District Superintendent Andrew Feuling present data on declining enrollment — a projected 13 percent drop by the end of the decade — commissioners focused on the need for affordable housing.
“Communities are either growing or they’re dying,” said Planning Commissioner Sena Loyd, who first proposed 1 percent of permit allocations go to affordable housing.
Feuling noted declining enrollment could partly be caused by more homeschooling. But he also pointed to a changing demographic shaped by higher housing costs.
“I just think for a young working-class family trying to move into Carson, that is hard,” he said.
Feuling added that in general, people are having smaller families.
“The overall demographic of Carson City is also aging,” he said. “If you go back to the year 2000, the population of Carson that was over the age of 65 was about 15 percent. And now, it’s about 20 percent.”
City departments weighed in as well. Public Works, for example, maintains 3 percent growth could be accommodated. Public Works Director Darren Schulz previously told the Appeal that Carson City has 18,648 acre-feet per annum of water rights. Of that, 11,115 were used last year, and 2,305 have been permitted but not yet used.
“Subtracting the 2022 total water production of 11,115 acre-feet and outstanding water commitments of 2,305 acre-feet from Carson City's usable water rights of 18,648 leaves a balance of approximately 5,228 acre-feet, which may be allocated toward new development,” reads a Public Works report. “Carson City continues to utilize conjunctive use water management. Carson City fulfills its annual water demands from approximately 75 percent groundwater and 25 percent surface water sources.”
The goal of “conjunctive management,” says the report, is to use surface water when available “to allow the groundwater aquifers to rest.”
Regarding wastewater treatment, the city’s facility is permitted to process 6.9 million gallons of sewage per day.
“The Water Resource Recovery Facility is permitted to process a sewage flow of 6.9 million gallons per day averaged over a 30-day period,” reads the report. “The 2022 maximum monthly average flow was 5.1 MGD. With respect to the planned growth, a potential development rate of 3 percent through 2024 could be accommodated by the WWRF and wastewater operations.”
Following a recommendation from Public Works, planning commissioners also approved dropping the threshold for commercial water use review from 15,000 gallons per day to 10,000 gallons per day, meaning any use above 10,000 would go before the Growth Management Commission for approval.
Commissioners’ recommendations made Wednesday will go to the Board of Supervisors.