Graphic from Community Development showing historical allocation of residential building permits versus those issued.
Growth is a hot issue in Carson City, sparking public debate about resources and development. Those tasked with monitoring growth will meet 4 p.m. Wednesday in the community center.
Every year, the Carson City Planning Commission convenes as the Growth Management Commission to review reports from city departments and make a recommendation to the Board of Supervisors concerning residential building permit allocations. Wednesday’s meeting will focus on allocations for 2024 and 2025, plus estimates for 2026 and 2027.
“The Growth Management Commission will consider the input of the sheriff, fire department, health department, parks department, public works department and the Carson City schools on how growth is impacting their service delivery,” Community Development Director Hope Sullivan told the Appeal. “School Superintendent Andrew Feuling will present a recently completed analysis on student population forecast, while members of the city’s Public Works Department will provide detailed information on the city’s water and wastewater systems, including a discussion regarding the capacity of those systems.”
The city’s current population is slightly more than 58,000, according to the U.S. Census and Nevada State Demographer. The city’s growth management program, which began in 1978, caps the number of residential building permits to a 3 percent growth rate. Using past methodology, city staff is recommending 765 permit allocations for 2024, approximately 788 for 2025, and 811 and 834 for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
“Based on modeling, the staff finds that there are 24,464 existing residential units in Carson City,” Sullivan said. “Based on existing zoning regulations and Master Plan policies, an additional 8,384 residential units could be developed city-wide. Annually, the Board of Supervisors determines how many housing starts will be permitted each calendar year, traditionally allowing for a 3 percent growth rate. If the 3 percent growth rate is applied in 2024, it will allow for 765 housing starts.”
Community Development projects a total buildout of 32,848 residential units would result in a population of approximately 76,207.
Residential building permits also are divided into two categories, general property owners and development projects. The latter is for developers proposing 31 or more lots or units. Historically, 43 percent of allocations go to general owners, and 57 percent to development projects.
“After the first quarter of the year, all allocations are combined into a single category and available on a first-come-first-serve basis,” reads a staff report.
How city infrastructure and services can handle projected growth is the focus of Wednesday’s meeting.
Sheriff’s Office
CCSO notes three areas of concerns for future growth: homeless population growth; mental health and crisis intervention and services growth; and “congested population affordable apartment style housing construction.”
“All three of these conditions are determined to be having significant impacts on law enforcement and public safety services,” reads a CCSO report to Community Development. “Continued growth of these conditions would easily overwhelm current staffing postures, resource availabilities and could negatively impact current growth projections.”
The CCSO report also points out, “Staffing levels at the Communications Center has reached a critical level as the center is only staffed with 2 to 3 personnel per shift, which is easily overloaded during a critical incident call.”
CCSO receives between 25,000 and 30,000 emergency calls per year, while the Fire Department receives between 10,000 and 11,000 per year, according to the report.
School District
On May 9, the Carson City School District reported K-12 enrollment could decrease by approximately 13 percent to 6,268 students by the 2029-30 school year, based on new demographic projections. Enrollment this year was more than 7,000.
“I will say that the decline is likely overstated somewhat because of the anomalous drop in enrollment in the 2020-21 school year due to COVID being averaged in,” Feuling said in a letter to Community Development. “However, we have seen that our elementary grade class sizes have been on a slight downward trend even prior to COVID.”
Feuling further noted that the district has bonding capacity to improve or add facility space, “but in the near term it looks unlikely that would be due to enrollment/capacity issues.”
Public Works
According to Public Works Director Darren Schulz, Carson City has 18,648 acre-feet per annum of water rights. Of that, 11,115 were used last year, and 2,305 have been permitted but not yet used. The city also reuses about 3,000 AFA of effluent.
“Carson City has always used a drought as the design scenario to meet peak summer demands. Currently, there is approximately 26 million gallons per day (MGD) of production supply for a drought year,” Schulz wrote in a memo to Community Development. “The average maximum-day demand from fiscal year 2010 to 2022 was approximately 19.30 MGD. There is approximately 6 MGD of peak supply capability remaining, if all supply sources are functioning.
“Carson City Public Works can accommodate the projected 3 percent growth through 2024, dependent on the completion of the planned capital improvement projects regarding storage, treatment, distribution and production facilities.”
Currently the threshold for Growth Management Commission review of commercial water use in the city is 15,000 gallons per day. Staff is recommending dropping that threshold to 10,000 gallons per day.
“Public Works analyzed water usage data for commercial and industrial properties across Carson City to determine this adjustment to the current threshold,” Schulz wrote. “This analysis revealed that the 10,000 gallons per day threshold represented the cut off for the top 10 percent of highest commercial/industrial water users in Carson City and signified a more appropriate threshold in determining which applications will be under the review of the Growth Management Commission.”
Regarding the city’s much discussed roadways, Public Works maintains 3 percent residential growth could be accommodated.
“With respect to the planned growth of the city and how that may be expected to impact the city’s transportation system, increased traffic volumes anticipated to result from the potential development rate of 3 percent can be accommodated by the existing and planned transportation system in 2024, dependent on the roadway corridor,” said Schulz.
However, he pointed out that roadway maintenance operates at a deficit.
“Consequently, the long-term condition of the city’s roadway pavement will continue to deteriorate unless or until the funding gap is reduced,” he said. “The current estimated deficit in funding to meet our targeted pavement condition is $20 million per year.”
In April, the Regional Transportation Commission amended a contract with Hansford Economic Consulting to further explore funding options. Hansford was hired in 2021 to explore and study road maintenance funding. Their work is anticipated to be completed by December of 2024.
Hansford has posited a new .25 percent sales tax and general improvement districts as ways to better fund neighborhood roads, not regional roads that qualify for federal funding. In February, the Board of Supervisors expressed support for the former option – likely to appear on the 2024 ballot — but more skepticism of GIDs, which would involve special assessments on properties.
Before growth management is discussed, planning commissioners will meet 2 p.m. Wednesday in a public workshop to review updates to Carson Municipal Code Title 18, which deals with zoning. Planning commissioners had a similar workshop in March with the Board of Supervisors. Community Development has been working with the District Attorney’s Office to update language, reduce redundancies and make code more readable for lawmakers and the public. Planning commissioners will make a recommendation to supervisors regarding the updates.