Jim Hartman
Courtesy Photo
President Joe Biden is deeply unpopular with Nevada voters six months before the November election.
The most recent RealClearPolitics polling average finds he would lose the state to Donald Trump by 3.2%.
Biden has dismal approval numbers on the issues of immigration, inflation and foreign policy.
On immigration, Biden has presided over the worst border crisis in American history with migrant encounters hitting a record high in 2023. The RCP polling average finds voters disapproving by 63.2% to 32.3%.
On inflation, price increases during the Biden presidency are unlike any experienced in recent decades and are not under control. The RCP polling average shows voter disapproval by 62.6% to 35.2%.
In foreign policy, Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are on the march and working together. Iran’s attack on Israel demonstrated U.S. deterrence failed again. The RCP polling average finds voters disapproving by 59.3% to 36.5%.
Biden’s poor polling performance caused the non-partisan Cook Political Report on April 3 to shift the rating of the 2024 Nevada U.S. Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.” Freshman Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is likely to go against Republican Sam Brown in November.
Nevada Democrats see abortion rights as their political salvation in November. The Silver State is decidedly “pro-choice” on abortion.
A New York Times/Siena poll taken last October found that 65% of Nevadans think abortion should be legal. That opinion crossed party lines.
Abortion is already legal in Nevada up to 24 weeks into pregnancy. That right was codified in state law in 1990 by a referendum passed with 63.5% voter approval. It can only be undone by another vote of the people or a federal ban, neither of which is realistically possible.
Reproductive rights activists and Nevada Democrats are promoting two ballot initiatives for the November 2024 ballot to establish a state constitutional right to abortion.
The first, which attorneys argued before the Nevada Supreme Court in March, is in legal jeopardy. District Court Judge James Russell ruled last November the proposed constitutional amendment was too broad, violating the state’s single-subject rule. It included subjects like vasectomies, infertility and prenatal care.
Soon after Russell’s ruling, a second effort was launched with a much narrower scope. Russell cleared the second petition in January after a legal challenge.
The revised petition would protect the right to an abortion until fetal viability, generally considered 23 or 24 weeks, or when necessary to protect the life or health of the pregnant mother.
These are essentially the same protections that already exist under Nevada law.
Legal review is the first hurdle. To have the measure on the November ballot, petition supporters must obtain at least 102,362 valid voter signatures by June 26, with a minimum number of 25,591 signatures coming from each of Nevada’s four congressional districts.
As of April 2, Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, the organization behind the two initiatives, said it has already garnered enough signatures to qualify the second measure for the ballot. They report gathering 110,000 signatures which is 50% of their goal before the deadline.
If a measure qualifies for the ballot and is passed by the voters, it would be placed on the ballot again in 2026; a second affirmative vote at that election would add the language to the Nevada Constitution.
The ballot initiative was financed by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a future Democratic presidential hopeful. Billionaire Pritzker, scion of the Hyatt Hotel founders and owners, poured $1million into the Nevada effort.
Nevada Democrats have double downed on making abortion rights a resonating issue in November, like it was in 2022.
Yet Democrats will need to convince voters that abortion remains critically important.
Current polls show illegal immigration, the cost of living and foreign wars are the key issues this year – an advantage for Republicans.
E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman1@aol.com.