Santoro: Pack’s no-pressure season gives Choate a chance

Sports Fodder:

What we are about to tell you has nothing to do with Jeff Choate.

Choate, it seems, is a solid college football coach. He has done his best to improve the roster and the coaching staff since becoming the Nevada Wolf Pack head coach after the 2023 season. He has said all the right things, shown tremendous enthusiasm and declared his loyalty to the university and the community.

But there's only so much a new head coach can do in the off-season. So, remember, this has really nothing to do with Choate, his new Transfer Portal Pack roster and personal buddies he has hired to help him coach.

But none of that changes the stark fact that expectations for Wolf Pack football for the coming season are at one of the lowest points in the history of the program. Preseason publications and media predictions rank the Wolf Pack as the worst team in the Mountain West. The Pack, those predictions will tell you, will struggle to win more than four games. They might not be the favorite in any of their 13 games this season.

This as low as the Pack program has been since head coach Jeff Tisdel went 3-8 in his final season in 1999 followed by Chris Tormey's 2-10 and 3-8 in his first two seasons in 2000 and 2001. Choate, who has good intentions, now gets to clean up Ken Wilson's 4-20 combined mess the last two years and, well, we wish him well and have full confidence in his ability to get this program back on the right track eventually. The roster and the coaching staff already appears substantially improved over the Wilson years.

But 2024, which begins in less than three weeks (Aug. 24 at home against SMU), will likely be another trying season.

But that's not all bad. Anything positive that Choate produces this year will be met with enthusiasm, hope and promise. Yes, the bar has been set that low thanks to Wilson. Nobody is expecting the Wolf Pack to win as many games as it loses this year. Nobody is expecting a bowl game at the end of the year despite the forgiving 13-game regular season. Well, nobody that isn't getting paid by the university or a silver and blue booster that has helped pay for Choate's Transfer Portal Pack, that is.

Money does have a way of clouding one's perspective, as you know.

There's nothing wrong with low expectations, as long as you remind yourself of those low expectations throughout the season. The last thing you need to do is to start planning a parade down Virginia Street if the Pack happens to beat Troy, Georgia Southern or Eastern Washington in the first five weeks of the season.

If they beat all three, then let's talk about raising the Pack bar. If not, well, treat this Pack team as you would your 8-year-old's Little League team. Cheer the effort when they strike out or throw the ball into the bleachers. And give them their juice box and granola bar after the game, win or lose.

This is, after all, the year of No Pressure Pack. Keep those expectations low and enjoy the ride.

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The Wolf Pack, of course, can win six games and go to a bowl game. Choate could be the best rookie Wolf Pack head coach since Chris Ault turned Jerry Scattini's 3-8 Wolf Pack in 1975 into a surprising 8-3 team in 1976.

Yes, we understand Jeff Tisdel went 9-3 and won the Big West and a bowl game in 1996 in his first year. But Tisdel took over a team that went 9-3 the previous year for Ault and basically didn't screw up what Ault handed him. Choate, we remind you, has not been handed a 9-3 team on a silver and blue platter. Six wins and a bowl game this year, while possible because of the handy dandy transfer portal, would warrant a parade down Virginia Street.

What will be the key to the Pack achieving six wins and a bowl game? Well, for starters, three of those victories will likely have to come in the first six weeks. The schedule gets much tougher over the final seven weeks. The Pack, simply because it barely knows who is on the roster right now, will be a better team in the final seven weeks but the won-lost record probably won't reflect that improvement.

Three wins in the first six weeks, when the Pack plays SMU, Troy, Georgia Southern, Minnesota, Eastern Washington and San Jose State, will give this new team confidence to compete over the final seven weeks and possibly squeeze out three more victories. 

The Pack, if you believe in minor miracles, might even win four of the first six (Troy, Georgia Southern, Eastern Washington and San Jose State, for example) and lift all those low expectations to unreasonable levels.

•••

Choate has promised that his Wolf Pack will focus on running the ball on offense. That, of course, will require him to develop a competent offensive line and a tremendous amount of patience if, and when, the Pack finds itself trailing by three touchdowns in the first half.

Choate's promise to run the ball with authority might just be his Big Sky Conference pedigree showing through from when a solid ground game required just brute force, determination and a one-dimensional game plan. But that's OK. It would be refreshing to see the Pack run the ball well after five years of Jay Norvell's Air Raid and two years of Ken Wilson's aimless, predictable and let's-just-wing-it attack.

The Pack offensive line, even in the Norvell years, never exactly threatened Ault's years of dominance with The Union. It's a group that needs to come together and take ownership of the offense. The Union was always the heart and soul of the Pack offense in the Ault years. Ault knew that as well as anyone and that's why he gave them a cute nickname, even if he didn't always give them enough credit.

Choate is a tough guy and he's surrounded himself with tough guys and he'll build a solid offensive line. But does this Pack team have talent in the backfield? Sean Dollars, who ran for 527 yards and six touchdowns, definitely has talent. Oregon thought enough of him to put him on its roster for a few years. Dollars also shown that he has the toughness to pick up the difficult yards last year when every inch was a dogfight.

Ashton Hayes, who stayed healthy for just four weeks last year, has some explosiveness and versatility. Choate has also brought in former Boston College workhorse Patrick Garwo and ex-Texas backup Savion Red. There are also another four or five who are hopeful for an opportunity.

So, yes, the talent is on the roster to run the ball.

•••

Former McQueen High standout Brandon Aiyuk, it seems, is close to getting his wish. The San Francisco 49ers, which saw Aiyuk catch 269 passes for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns over the last four years, have already given Aiyuk permission to negotiate a contract with other teams.

The 49ers, according to reports, are about to trade Aiyuk to either the New England Patriots or Cleveland Browns. Aiyuk, who expressed a desire to leave San Francisco in his Super Bowl postgame locker room interviews last February, would rather catch passes for a team that might not make the playoffs rather than for one that has realistic Super Bowl dreams.

It seems to be all about the money for Aiyuk. Don't forget that Aiyuk caught 78 and 75 passes in each of the last two years in San Francisco. So, it's not about an opportunity for Aiyuk.

It's just about getting paid right now.

The 49ers, who know Aiyuka's value better than anyone, won't just give him away. But by allowing Aiyuk to talk to other teams this summer, it seems like the 49ers don't want him poisoning their locker room anymore.

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One guy who is playing for the love of the game (and a salary of about $450,000 a year) is former Wolf Pack quarterback Cody Fajardo.

Fajardo is playing in the Canadian Football League for the Montreal Alouettes and is coming off a season in which he won the Grey Cup (Canada's Super Bowl) last November with a touchdown pass with 11 seconds to play. So, yes, he's Canada's Joe Montana right now.

Like Montana, Fajardo is battling an injury this season and has played in just six games. He recently returned to practice and is hopeful of playing in Montreal's game against the Hamilton Tiger Cats on Aug. 10.

It has always been amazing Fajardo hasn't gotten more respect and interest from the NFL during his career. The then-Oakland Raiders had him in the 2015 preseason but cut him before the regular season started. Fajardo, who would be perfect for the NFL's love of running quarterbacks now, is now in his 10th CFL season. He led the league in passing yards in 2019 and in completion percentage last year and has thrown for over 15,000 yards and 70 touchdowns in his career (he's only been a full-time starter since 2019).

Fajardo is now 32 and might be a bit too old for some NFL team to make him a starter. And he's never had an elite arm. All he can do, after all, is win a Grey Cup with three touchdown passes. But he'd be a perfect NFL backup and could step in and help a team win.

But Fajardo has never gotten the credit he has deserved. At Nevada, where he passed for 9,659 yards and rushed for 3,482, he was always the guy who replaced Colin Kaepernick. The NFL didn't even draft him after the 2014 season.

Fajardo is one of the best quarterbacks and one of the most talented to ever play the position at Nevada. But he was not given the same amount of talent around him at Nevada as Kaepernick had and he was forced to play for head coach Brian Polian his last two years.

•••

Blake Snell's no-hitter last Friday against the Cincinnati Reds is the highlight of what so far has been yet another forgettable San Francisco Giants season.

The left-hander, who signed a $62 million, two-year deal with the Giants after winning the National League Cy Young award last year with the San Diego Padres, has been one of baseball's best pitchers in recent weeks despite his 1-3 record.

The no-hitter is the first for the Giants since Chris Heston in 2015. Heston's no-hitter was the fifth in six years (2009-15) for the Giants after Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum (two). The Giants also, by the way, had three World Series wins during that era.

It was a magical Giants era.

But Snell's no-hitter, though it probably won't trigger another no-hitter and World Series-filled era in the Bay area, was a breath of fresh air in another unsatisfying Giants season. It was a reminder of what only baseball can do (as opposed to football, basketball and hockey) on what was going to be a forgettable early August game between two forgettable teams.

It gave us a moment we will never forget.

•••

On the surface this might seem like a silly question. But is Mike Trout still on a path to becoming a Hall of Famer or is he turning into another Don Mattingly?

There was no question the Los Angeles Angels outfielder was a sure-fire Hall of Famer after his first five (2012-16) seasons. He won two American League Most Valuable Player awards and finished second three times. He drove in 90 or more runs four times and hit 27 or more homers five times. He scored 100 or more runs all five years. His brilliance even continued through 2020 when he started to suffer some injuries. He still hit 134 homers and drove in 301 runs from 2017-20 in just over 1,500 at bats.

The last four years, though, have been horrible for Trout. He's played just 266 games over the last four years and has seen his yearly batting average fall each year, from .333 in 2021 to .283 (2022), .263 (2023) and .200 this year (in 29 games).

His career average is now down to .299. After stealing 20 or more bases five times in seven years, he's stolen just 12 bases over his last five years combined. He still hasn't hit his 400th career home run (he's at 378) or driven in his 1,000th run (he's at 980) and he's now 33. Will he get to 500 homers? Probably. But 600, which seemed like a lock just five years ago, now seems like it might never arrive.

Trout is still on a Hall of Fame path. But that path better include another five years of at least another 2,000 at bats and 125 or so homers. If not, if he continues to limp his way to less than 100 games a year like the last two years, he might be the 21st century Mattingly.

Mattingly, too, was a sure-fire Hall of Famer after his first six full-time seasons from 1984-89. He never hit under .311 those six years, had three 30-homer seasons, scored 90-plus runs five times and drove in 100-plus runs five times. But Donnie Baseball played his final six years as a mere mortal, never hitting more than 17 homers in a season, battling nagging injuries and hitting over .291 just once.

Mattingly finished with 222 homers, 1,099 RBI and a .307 average. Some would argue that he still belongs in the Hall of Fame because, well, he was a Yankee. But he's still not in.

Former Atlanta Braves center fielder Dale Murphy also comes to mind. Murphy was a phenomenal player through his first 10 full-time seasons (1978-87), hitting 30-plus homers six times, driving in 90-plus runs five times and hitting .280 or better six times. He won two MVPs, finished in the Top 10 two other times and made seven All Star teams in eight years. But he was an ordinary player his last four years and finished with 398 homers, 1,266 RBI and a .265 average and never made the Hall of Fame (though he probably should be in). He retired when he was just 37.

Trout needs to revive his career and take the issue of whether or not he's a Hall of Famer out of the voters' hands.