Jim Hartman
There was good news for Republicans in November.
The GOP added four seats to their ranks in the U.S. Senate, three of them by defeating incumbent Democrats. They also defended all 11 of their own seats.
Republicans now hold 53 Senate seats.
But there was also bad news. The GOP lost four Senate races in states that Donald Trump carried, including the Nevada Senate contest. All four were by narrow margins; with two by less than 1%.
In Nevada’s Senate race, incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen won by a far closer margin than most polls projected. Rosen defeated Republican Sam Brown by 14,059 votes (1.65%).
Meanwhile, Donald Trump carried Nevada by 46,008 votes (3.1%) against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Tens of thousands of Trump voters didn’t bother to vote for Brown in the Senate race.
Trump won 751,205 votes for president while Brown received 677,046 votes for the Senate – a drop-off of 74,159. Over 3% of voters chose “None of the Above” in the Senate race, more than twice the number voting “None of the Above” for president (1.36%).
Rosen received 701,105 votes for the Senate, lagging behind Harris’ presidential vote total of 705,197 by only 4,092 votes.
Brown was severely outspent, with outside groups late to aid him on the airwaves.
According to AdImpact, Democrats spent $94.3 million on the race to the Republicans’ $70.3 million. Rosen was able to create an early advantage by going up with ads in April, while Brown was stuck in a multi-candidate GOP primary field.
Rosen relentlessly attacked Brown on the issue of abortion. While Brown said he would not vote for a national abortion ban, he was dogged by his past comments supporting an abortion ban made in a previous 2014 run for the Legislature in Texas.
In a state where abortion is legal for up to 24 weeks and abortion rights are supported by nearly 2/3rds of voters, Brown’s shifting positions on abortion put him on defense.
Rosen touted her “bipartisanship” and Nevada roots – Rosen has spent 45 years in the state to Brown’s six.
Brown ran heavily on his record as a wounded military veteran and attacked Rosen throughout the campaign as a “rubber stamp” for President Joe Biden’s agenda, pointing out how frequently she voted with Biden’s stated position.
Nationally, nearly all pre-election polls had Republicans winning the two seats necessary to win 51 seats and Senate control.
With Joe Manchin’s retirement, his West Virginia seat was easily won by Republican Gov. Jim Justice by a 41% margin. In Montana, incumbent Democrat Jon Tester fell behind Republican Tim Sheehy in polls this summer and lost by 7%.
Trump’s 11% landslide win in Ohio swept Republican businessman Bernie Moreno to victory over Democratic Senate veteran Sherrod Brown, 50%-46%.
Five Senate elections were in states intensely contested by the presidential candidates: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
Trump swept all five states, but Republicans lost four of the five Senate races.
Only Republican Dave McCormick unseated Democrat Bob Casey in Pennsylvania winning by 0.2%, whereas Trump won by 1.8%.
In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers lost by 0.3% where Trump won by 1.4%, and Republican Eric Hovde lost in Wisconsin by 0.9% in a state that Trump carried by the same margin.
Sam Brown lost in Nevada, and Republican hard-core MAGA candidate Kari Lake lost in Arizona by 2.4%, where Trump triumphed by 5.5%.
McCormick and Rogers were originally Bush-era Republicans and Hovde made an earlier 2012 Senate run.
In 2025, having a three-seat majority rather than a seven-seat majority may significantly affect Trump’s capacity to get controversial cabinet picks confirmed and his legislative agenda approved.
Those losses may yet cost Republicans control of the upper chamber in 2026 or 2028.
Republicans wish they had not missed so many opportunities in 2024.
E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman1@aol.com.