Jim Hartman
While Donald Trump could credibly claim a “record-setting victory” Jan. 15 in Iowa GOP caucuses, it was based on a very meager turnout of Iowa Republican voters.
Only 14.6% of Iowa’s registered Republican voters bothered to caucus. It was the lowest turnout in any contested Iowa GOP caucus since 2000. Roughly 110,000 people participated, down from 187,000 in 2016.
Some of the decline can be attributed to severe weather, but Trump’s 51% share of the caucus vote means that over 92% of Iowa Republicans either favored other candidates or just stayed home.
Republican campaigns spent more $123 million in Iowa on advertising, amounting to over $1,000 for every caucus participant.
Contrast the Iowa caucus with New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 presidential primary.
Turnout in the Granite State set a record on Tuesday – exceeding 325,000 voters. While Iowa’s population (3.2 million) is more than twice that of New Hampshire (1.4 million), participation in New Hampshire’s primary was three times greater than Iowa’s caucus.
In Iowa, the GOP caucus was limited to the state’s 752,000 registered Republican voters. In New Hampshire, the GOP primary was open to 268,000 registered Republicans and 343,000 unaffiliated voters – but not registered Democrats.
Iowa has a long history of glitches and problems with political party run caucuses. The last three presidential races – 2012, 2016, and 2020 – were a mess with confusion over who won the first-in-the-nation caucuses.
Trump even claimed there was fraud when he lost the caucuses in 2016 to Texas’ U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz during his first presidential campaign.
The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses were a disaster.
The Iowa Democratic Party results were delayed due to technological inconsistencies. The app the party used didn’t work and the process broke down.
No winner was declared on the day of the caucus with Bernie Sanders declaring himself the winner three days later despite the national party calling for a “recanvass” in the wake of inconclusive results.
Over three weeks later the Iowa Democratic Party certified results declaring Pete Buttigieg the winner.
The fiasco of 2020 was a repeat of the previous election in 2016. Once again, technological problems lead to confusion in understanding just who won the caucuses – Hillary Clinton or Sanders.
Chaos ensued when untrained volunteers were unable to handle the number of caucus participants.
As a partial result of these Iowa caucus disasters, Democrats stripped the Hawkeye State of its first-in-the nation status.
And, Iowa Republicans named the wrong caucus winner in 2012.
Mitt Romney was declared the Iowa caucus winner by state party officials , but Rick Santorum was found to be the actual winner eight days later.
Also in 2012, Nevada Republican caucus results came two days late, with the Nevada GOP taking the blame for a total breakdown in the count of caucus votes.
In 2020, Nevada Democrats feared a “complete disaster” of a technological meltdown. There was chaos in reporting caucus results, leading both Buttigieg and Sanders to request recounts.
In response, the Nevada Legislature in 2021 passed a bipartisan bill (AB 126) that ditched the traditional caucuses and embraced a state-run primary.
The vote in the Assembly (30-11) and Senate (15-6) was a constitutional super-majority. Eight Republican legislators joined Democrats to approve the measure.
Ironically, Republican Party Chairman Michael McDonald, who now insists on a legally unnecessary GOP presidential caucus to benefit Trump, was a supporter of switching to a primary in 2016 in the aftermath of the GOP’s 2012 caucus fiasco.
The current primary/caucus chaos and confusion is the sole responsibility of the Nevada GOP.
The Las Vegas Sun reports (Jan. 17) : “The Clark County Republican Party is still without a clear list of venues in the Las Vegas area for its planned presidential nominating caucus next month.”
Presidential caucuses are an historic mess – and archaic. Caucuses are exclusionary; primaries increase participation.
E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman1@aol.com.