Santoro: Pack has 12 games to prove itself worthy

It’s now down to the Dirty Dozen. The Nevada Wolf Pack men’s basketball team might have just 12 more games to prove it is NCAA Tournament worthy.

Those dozen games will consist of 11 in the regular season and at least one in the Mountain West tournament. If the Pack needs more than one game in the conference tournament then things probably went horribly wrong in the final 11 regular season games.

Three weeks ago, we didn’t think we’d have to worry about such frightening things as proving NCAA Tournament worthiness. The Wolf Pack, don't forget, was 15-1 overall and 2-0 in the Mountain West and appeared a lock to not only make the NCAA Tournament but to also get a single-digit seed.

But now, after four losses in the last five games, it’s bite-your-fingernails, pull-out-your-hair time once again. The Pack, just like last year, might be lucky to even get the NCAA Tournament’s version of the airline standby ticket, a spot in the First Four.

That is sort of like getting invited to the Super Bowl next week and discovering you are just guaranteed a spot at a Las Vegas casino bar in front of a TV. How did 15-1 and a ticket to the dance turn into a crowded bar on Super Bowl Sunday?

That's what the Wolf Pack needs to figure out over the next 12 days.

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Nothing has been destroyed, ruined or obliterated just yet for the Wolf Pack. The Pack is still an impressive 16-5 overall (and a not-so-impressive 3-4 in league play) and there certainly is plenty of time to get back on the NCAA Tournament track.

But, make no mistake, the sky is starting to fall. It’s all about the next 12 games. It would seem the Pack will have to at least split the next 12 games and finish at least with 22 wins to at least have a shot at an at-large NCAA invite.

Where will the six wins come from? Well, that’s easy. How about Lawlor Events Center where the Pack is 10-1 this year after going 14-1 a year ago? Lawlor is the Magic Kingdom and the Happiest Place on Earth, as far as the Pack is concerned. It’s where erratic Wolf Pack shooters can’t miss, coach Steve Alford makes all the right decisions at exactly the right time and where all the referees are wearing silver and blue under their striped shirts.

Lawlor will rescue the Pack.

The Pack has six (how convenient) home games left starting with San Jose State on Friday and followed by San Diego State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Fresno State and UNLV. Yes, we understand the Pack has lost to three (San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico) of those teams already. But those losses didn’t come at Lawlor. Ever walk into a bear cave and look eye-to-eye with a mama bear protecting her cubs? That’s what it is like for Pack opponents to come to Lawlor.

But even if the Pack somehow loses a game or two at Lawlor the rest of the season there are still winnable games on the road (namely UNLV, San Jose State, Colorado State) to make up for it. Road wins at Utah State and Boise State, too, are possibilities.

So, yes, six wins over the final 11 regular season games seems like a lock, putting the Pack at 22 wins going into the conference tournament. They might even be at 23 or 24 and back in the conversation for a single-digit seed if everyone plays with the confidence, aggressiveness and purpose we saw back in November and December.

So don’t bite those fingernails or pull out that hair just yet. But wear gloves and a hat just to be safe.

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There are right now five Mountain West teams that might be better than the Pack. Those five are Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Boise State and Colorado State. Everybody else is a first-round conference tournament loss waiting to happen.

All of those Fab Five can be beaten and overtaken by the Pack. The Pack has already beaten Colorado State. San Diego State and New Mexico still have to come to Lawlor. Wins at Boise State and Utah State are also extremely important to give the Pack NCAA tournament resume some weight.

It is imperative the Pack climbs over at least two of the Fab Five by the time the NCAA selection committee makes its decisions. There is likely no way the NCAA tournament committee will take six Mountain West teams. It also likely won’t take five. That means the Pack needs to finish the season with no worse than the fourth-best NET ranking in the Mountain West. Right now the Pack is sixth.

Boise State and Colorado State are teetering just as much as the Pack right now. San Diego State has none of the magic it had last year when it got to the Final Four. New Mexico turns into a fragile team when it leaves the friendly confines of The Pit as does Utah State when it leaves home.

This is not an impossible task for the Pack.

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Does anybody really want to see Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl once again?

But if you are a San Francisco 49ers fan it is certainly better than seeing ex-Niner coach Jim Harbaugh wearing a Baltimore Ravens sweater up in a luxury suite at Allegiant Stadium cheering on his brother John’s team.

The 49ers shouldn’t even be in Las Vegas. They should have lost to Green Bay two weeks ago and certainly should have lost to Detroit last week. So, we get it, the 49ers are clearly playing with house money right now.

The opponent next Sunday in Las Vegas does not matter. At halftime this past Sunday, don't forget, the 49ers' opponent this offseason looked to be all the Brock Purdy haters and those that think Kyle Shanahan’s middle name is Super Bowl Choker (see Super Bowls 54 and 51).

So, bring on Mahomes and the Chiefs. Beating the best is what makes Super Bowls special. Yes, beating Stan Humphries in the Super Bowl (as the 49ers did three decades ago) is all well and good. The trophy is just as nice. But it’s not like beating Dan Marino and John Elway. Beating Mahomes will be like beating Marino and Elway put together.

Mahomes is 14-3 in the postseason in his six-year career. The only quarterbacks he has lost to are Tom Brady (twice) and Joe Burrow. Brady, Burrow and Brock has a nice ring to it if you are a 49ers fan.

Purdy, by the way, is 4-0 in the playoffs in his career when he starts and finishes a game (he got hurt in last year’s 49er loss in the NFC title game at Philadelphia after going 4-for-4).

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The 49ers lost to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl four years ago, 31-20, giving up three touchdowns in the final six minutes. Reid and Shanahan were the head coaches and Mahomes was the Chiefs quarterback and Kelce the tight end.

But the similarities between the Chiefs and 49ers this year compared to four years ago are few and far between. Jimmy Garoppolo was the 49ers quarterback four years ago, handing off to Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman and throwing the ball to Kendrick Bourne and Emmanuel Sanders. Mahomes was throwing to Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins and handing off to Damien Williams.

The 49ers seem to be far better and more talented than they were four years ago. The Chiefs, simply because Tyreek Hill is now a Miami Dolphin, seem a bit more predictable and human.

The 49ers have added future Hall of Famers Trent Williams (offensive line) and Christian McCaffrey (running back) since the last time they played the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Brandon Aiyuk has also been added to the wide receiver room.

And, by the way, Purdy is now the 49ers quarterback and he’ll be playing in Las Vegas in 10 days or so where Garoppolo managed to start just six games this season for the Raiders before being sent to the bench.

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Is there any question that the 49ers will be the hometown favorite in Las Vegas against the Chiefs?

Las Vegas is where Bay Area teams, it seems, always end up eventually. See the Raider and Athletics. And now the 49ers.

Northern Nevada, of course, is still full of 49er fans. That alone will make them the crowd favorite in a Super Bowl in the state of Nevada. But the 49ers also have two other very strong ties to Northern Nevada.

There’s a good chance Purdy’s brother Chubba Purdy will be the Wolf Pack’s starting quarterback this season and one of Purdy’s top targets is Aiyuk, the former McQueen High star wide receiver.

Aiyuk isn’t the first Northern Nevada high school product to be a part of a Super Bowl team (see, for example, Wooster’s Glenn Carano, Reed’s Austin Corbett and McQueen’s Kyle Van Noy). But he might be the first to win a Super Bowl MVP.

Aiyuk, who went from McQueen to Sierra College and Arizona State before getting drafted in the first round in 2020, has caught 269 passes for 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns in the regular season in his four seasons. He had seven catches for 82 yards (on 11 targets) against the Chiefs in the 2022 season.

Six or seven catches for 80-plus yards and two touchdowns from Purdy should get him the Super Bowl MVP.