Business panel discusses possibilities under Trump

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House is certain to bring Nevada tax cuts, impacts to supply chains and shifts in manufacturing and business, local economic experts told business community members Nov. 14.

The Northern Nevada Development Authority invited employers and investors to hear from panelists on the 2024 General Election’s effect and economic potential on the Silver State.

The NNDA Economic Roundup Nov. 14 featured moderator Susan Fisher, senior adviser of government affairs and advocacy at McDonald Carano, and panelists Brian Bonnefant of the Center for Regional Studies of the University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada State Treasurer Zach Conine and Dennis Cuneo, president of DC Strategic Business Advisors and a former senior vice president at Toyota.

Trump previously discussed lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, but Bonnefant said what’s problematic is the national debt. A sunset on the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that helped to reduce tax rates for corporations and individuals and narrowed reductions for state and local income taxes and property taxes would cost $5 trillion, he said.

Also unknown is the proposed Department of Government Efficiency for which he has tapped Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. DOGE is a proposed advisory group on government spending that could operate under the oversight of the Federal Advisory Committee Act. But Bonnefant said Social Security and Medicare might be the “low hanging fruit” for major changes.

The forecast calls for political gridlock with changes to the Nevada Legislature and the federal government, and the transition in power that will work for or against Trump in the state’s economic challenges, Bonnefant said.

Northern Nevada will continue to express an interest in the electric vehicle trend. While many forecasts show worldwide sales are expected to see 16.7 million automobiles, 20% will be EVs and yet the actual rate has increased, Cuneo said. The rate of EVs sales have been reported at a record of 1.4 million sold in the 10 months, a 9% increase over the past year, he said.

But reports indicate Trump has sought to eliminate a $7,500 tax credit for purchases. The outgoing Biden administration’s regulations that looked to push the nation toward EV purchases was something Trump opposed.

The election helped companies like Tesla that saw its stock market value rise by $250 billion — totaling more than General Motors, Ford and Stellantis — but analysts have thought the autonomous vehicle program would benefit from any relief from regulatory burdens, Cuneo said.

“It's not positive news for the areas highly invested in EVs as Northern Nevada, because in addition to Tesla, we got about a dozen companies and the lithium miners who were investing billions of dollars here, and they employ thousands of people here,” he said. “That continued investment and financial health depends on the continued growth in EV sales.”

With Trump returning to office, companies might examine whether it makes sense to reshore if their supply is vulnerable, Cuneo said. Trump has been keen to bolster the use of tariffs to support companies driving the import of goods and bump up the cost of American-made products.

“In the past decade, Reno’s became an advanced manufacturing powerhouse, and to keep up that momentum and take advantage of the future reshoring, my suggestions are, number one, we have to continue with the business policies that have made this an attractive place for business,” he said. “You know, we poach a lot of businesses from California because it's just easier to do business here.”

Cuneo also suggested providing improving local educational training programs and developing shovel-ready sites with the infrastructure to equip companies desiring to build large projects.

Conine encouraged Nevadans to be mindful of changes coming to federal spending and infrastructure with a “spin the bottle” approach from the incoming administration. Nevada’s lithium industry, projects funded by the American Rescue and Reinvestment Act scheduled to be complete by December 2026, industrial plants and jobs are at risk with changes to federal guidance, he said, under “strange things” that happen in scale.

Conine said it’s important to ensure the Silver State avoids the loss of critical programs and services. The state has one of the healthiest rainy day funds in the nation, fully funded at $1.24 billion, Conine said. But hypothetically, if Trump eliminates the U.S. Department of Education and payments are withheld for approximately 60 days, “the state breaks,” he said.

“We will not have money to pay for K-12 education anymore, right?” he said. “So the level of risk in front of us is tremendous. And the only way I think of the way that we're handling it, I expect the way that everyone else is handling it, is just paying attention to the news and trying to separate policy from politics, right?”

Ultimately, one of the most defining problems for Nevada and its future, Conine said, will be offering more affordable housing as its population continues to grow, and that means partnering with administrators at all levels. Lawmakers and local representatives can make the tough choices for essential goals including mental health, health care, education and other needs, he said, but to provide the housing infrastructure is key.

“The best I can say is at every level of government with the Legislature, within the executive branch or even within the judicial branch, we need to pull every lever in front of us to put Nevadans in because from an economic development perspective … houses are where jobs sleep at night, right?” he said. And so, until we solve that problem, all of the other problems we have as a state continue to fester.”