Jim Hartman: Vance wins debate. Is Trump rising?

An articulate and confident Republican nominee, J. D. Vance, bested his at times frenetic and nervous Democratic opponent, Tim Walz, in their vice presidential debate.

On presence and command, Vance won the debate going away.

The Ohio senator was well prepared and relentlessly reminded voters about the failings of what he termed “the Kamala Harris administration.” He made the case that Donald Trump was unable to make in the presidential debate on illegal immigration, inflation and the economy.

Vance blasted an “historic invasion” of over 9 million migrants since Harris took office.

He repeatedly asked why Harris’s campaign proposals weren’t made 3 ½ years ago when she took office as vice president.

While some of his descriptions of Trump’s record in office strained credulity, Vance was a glib and effective messenger. As the Wall Street Journal observed, Vance sold Trump better than Trump.

He also overcame a pair of biased CBS moderators whose choice of topics and framing of questions advantaged Walz and focused on Democrats priorities.

With a cordial tone, Vance deftly made a sharp departure from his previous attack-dog role that gave him the lowest popularity of any vice presidential nominee in the modern era.

Walz was likeable but the Minnesota governor struggled to offer clear arguments in defense of his running mate.

His flustered demeanor was evident when he couldn’t explain having falsely claimed to have been in Hong Kong during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. Ultimately, he lamely admitted to being “a knucklehead at times.” Walz has made a series of false claims about his personal history.

Vance’s greatest debate liability was his fidelity to Trump’s unsubstantiated stolen election claims.

His inflexibility gifted Democrats a potent moment near the end of the debate.

Walz asked Vance directly: “Did Trump lose the 2020 election?” The Ohio senator’s response: “Tim, I’m focused on the future.” To which Walz retorted: “That is a damning non-answer.”

Holding on to the Trumpian fiction – that he still repeats – is a political loser and to many voters evidence of Trump’s very real threat to democracy.

While the vice presidential debate did not materially influence what appears to remain a 50/50 toss-up presidential race, there are some encouraging harbingers for Trump supporters.

CNN’s senior data reporter Harry Enten observes it would be historically unprecedented for an incumbent party to win in November when only 28% of voters currently think the country is on the “right track.”

Does Kamala Harris’s “Politics of Joy” slogan seem tone-deaf in the troubled world of 2024?

The Harris campaign received a blow when the International Fire Fighters Union followed the Brotherhood of Teamsters declining to endorse Harris in 2024.

Both these major unions endorsed Joe Biden for president in 2020. It’s evidence of strong support for Trump among the unions’ rank-and-file membership.

Republicans are also cutting into Democrats’ battleground state voter registration advantages.

In Nevada, there were 87,000 more Democratic voters in 2020 than Republicans. But going into Election Day 2024, there are just 19,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, there were 685,000 more Democrats than Republicans in 2020. That gap has been cut to 343,000 more Democrats in 2024.

North Carolina shows a similar shrinking gap, with just 126,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, down from 391,000 more Democrats last cycle.

And in Arizona, by the end of July, there were 259,000 more Republicans than Democrats, doubling the GOP advantage since 2020.

The RealClearPolitics aggregation of polls had Harris with a nationwide lead of 2 percent on Oct. 9 compared to Biden’s 9.7 percent lead over Trump on that same date in 2020. Trump outperformed the polls with Biden winning by only 4.5 percent.

Is there still an “undercover” Trump vote in 2024? If so, Trump is positioned for an Electoral College win.

With 3 ½ weeks until Election Day, brace for “October surprises” ahead.

E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman1@aol.com.