Commentary: You wanted the big-time, Pack — what comes next?

The Nevada athletics department rolled the dice in 1992 and said, “We want to play big-time football.”

At the time, the decision seemed to be a logical next step in the Wolf Pack’s progression from obscure Division II independent, to joining the Big Sky, to eventually becoming a national power at the FCS (formerly I-AA) level.

So, joining the Big West for the 1992 season just seemed like another rung on the ladder. While not exactly filled with football powerhouses — the Pack joined San Jose State, Utah State, UNLV, New Mexico State, Pacific and Fullerton State (the latter two no longer even play football) — it was an FBS conference that offered a guaranteed bowl appearance at the end of the season. It also offered increased TV exposure and a shot at a bigger footprint with regional and national media.

I’d bet that “What could go wrong?” was uttered more than once along the corridors of Legacy Hall.

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More rungs followed.

After ending its independent status in 1979 by joining the Big Sky, then jumping to the FBS level in 1992, Nevada kept up a steady upward mobility by jumping to the Western Athletic in 2000 and to its current home in the Mountain West in 2012.

The Pack appeared to be playing it smart, parlaying its increasing enrollment, attractive location, growing region, and reputation as a scrappy sports underdog into better and better opportunities. Nevada was making climbing the ladder look easy.

Fast forward to Sept. 12, 2024, though, and Nevada finds itself looking at a very big problem.

There are no more rungs.

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The Pac-12’s September stunner of adding Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State from the Mountain West, beginning in 2026, obviously changed the equation for the two conferences and, to an extent, the national landscape, as well.

It also did no favors for Nevada.

For the first time since its move to the top level in 1992, the Wolf Pack has no clear path forward. Currently, there’s no rung above the Mountain West when it comes to football west of the Mississippi River. Even a lateral move to the current Pac-6 (Six Pack?) has certain issues, since, you know, Nevada wasn’t even invited.

Division II to Big Sky made sense; Big Sky to Big West made sense; same for Big West to WAC; ditto for WAC to Mountain West. But what makes sense now?

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In an alternate reality somewhere, Nevada declined to join the FBS level and has spent the last 30 years winning about 13 Big Sky titles and five FCS national championships.

The fact that this, with hindsight, would have been the better decision is a column for another day. For now, using the reality we’re all living in, what comes next for Nevada?

Crystal ball time:

• Scenario 1: Nevada joins the Pac-12. Although the Pac-12 added four schools on Sept. 12, that only brings its total to six. The NCAA considers eight or more to be an actual conference, so everyone knows at least two more schools need to be added.

Why not Nevada and UNLV? As crazy as “Nevada in the Pac-12” might sound, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Would it have any meaning, though? The “Pac-12” would basically be “The old Mountain West, plus two left-behinds.”

• Scenario 2: The MW regroups. The conference is looking at a future with seven schools (eight in football) and not a ton of options that make any geographic sense.

Should the MW get aggressive, it could start making eyes at the likes of UTEP and New Mexico State. Those schools would make sense in a lot of ways, including geography and the fact that they would bring some built-in rivalries with them.

After that, you’re looking at Texas, basically. North Texas, Sam Houston, Rice, Texas State, and UTSA are all schools that could be talked into a future in the Mountain West.

After that? Well, now you’re getting into “There ain’t no mountains, and it’s not very west” territory.

• Scenario 3: The MW dissolves. If the Pac-12’s poaching of the Mountain West is finished at four schools, then the MW could continue on in a diminished state. The conference would still have some attractive members and some decent media markets.

But what if the Pac-12 (or others?) aren’t finished? What would the Mountain West do if it loses, say, UNLV, New Mexico and Air Force?

It might throw in the towel, that’s what.

Such a development would mean total chaos for any schools left behind. Almost nothing would be off the table. Nevada could find itself playing as an independent for two or three years or might find itself forming some sort of coalition with FCS powerhouses from the Big Sky.

Conferences have disappeared before. Ask yourself when the last time was that you saw a Big West conference game.

• Scenario 4: The MW does a Pac-12. After losing 10 of its 12 teams, the Pac-12 endured the mockery for a few months, hunkered down and came up with a plan. It will survive, in some form, and continue its 110-year tradition of college sports on the West Coast.

The Mountain West could do the same. Even if it loses more teams, the conference could just go turtle for the rest of this year and in 2025 while working behind the scenes to emerge in 2026 with some sort of new lineup.

It would likely make Pack fans, among others, very nervous. But there’s advantages to staying out of the spotlight and not engaging in endless speculation.

•••

One thing is for sure. If we are to stretch the ladder analogy to its breaking point, then Nevada is out of rungs.

There’s no logical place for Nevada to reach for, at least in the Pacific and Mountain time zones. It could be time to get creative. Maybe very creative.

Wolf Pack athletic director Stephnie Rempe was hired, in part, for her experience with big-time sports. Let’s see if she can maneuver Nevada into a soft landing spot for 2026 and beyond.

PACK’S CONFERENCES

1925-1939: Far Western

1954-1968: Far Western

1979-1991: Big Sky

1992-1999: Big West

2000-2011: WAC

2012-present: Mountain West