Poll gives challengers hope that may end when money starts flowing

In the calm before the cacophony of Campaign 2006, anything seems possible.

A recent Wall Street Journal Online/Zogby interactive poll showed Democrat Dina Titus leading Republican Jim Gibbons 46.8 percent to 44.1 percent in the Nevada governor's race, and incumbent U.S. Sen. John Ensign's lead over Democrat Jack Carter had narrowed to 48 percent to 45 percent.

Just a few months ago, Clark County Commissioner Lynette Boggs McDonald didn't figure to draw much of a challenge for her seat in District F. She has one now.

A Magellan Research tracking poll commissioned by opponent Susan Brager shows her with a slight lead over Boggs McDonald, 41.6 percent to 40.4 percent, with 18 percent undecided - not that it's expected to remain that way.

Boggs McDonald is a hard-charging campaigner and an attentive commissioner. Elected in November 2002 following a gubernatorial appointment, Boggs McDonald had experience as a Las Vegas city councilwoman and also was assistant city manager.

The poll illustrates, given the right challenger, that no lead is safe.

For the moment, 12-year Clark County School District trustee and Democratic primary winner Brager is in the hunt. She won her primary with 58 percent of the vote in a heavily Democratic district.

Despite that, this horse race may be short-lived. Republican Boggs McDonald has amassed more than $1.3 million in campaign funds to approximately $100,000 for Brager, according to a recent Review-Journal story.

No matter how capable a candidate Brager is, it still takes hay to run around the track.

Boggs McDonald consultant Ryan Erwin says his client isn't surprised by the poll's results given the 9-point Democratic registration advantage. But with more than $1 million banked, Erwin says there are plenty of plans to put the incumbent's message before the voters.

Brager would have a better chance if TV weren't yet invented. Once Boggs McDonald starts spreading around the cash in the form of advertisements and commercials, the numbers could change quickly.

Frankly, it makes you wonder where all those supposedly angry Democrats with checkbooks are.

"Basically, what it says is that without people actively campaigning in the race against each other, voters are going to follow party lines. And there is a Democratic registration advantage in District F," Magellan President Marvin Longabaugh observes.

That could change quickly once the spin machines begin weaving their magic.

"In a race like this, money usually is a pretty telling factor," he says.

Given the voter registration advantage, Longabaugh says, "I think Susan Brager would have an excellent shot, but the Democrats are going to have to put their money where their mouth is."

The poll of inveterate voters was conducted Aug. 24-25 in District F with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Given the public's disgust with politics generally in the wake of the G-sting public corruption case, local incumbents could be in for a rough ride.

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LIVING MEMORY: The memory of late Station Casinos executive Michael Tata continues to reverberate from the gaming company into the charitable community.

Tata's many friends continue to raise thousands of dollars in his honor, including $16,000 for Make-a-Wish.

Tata, who died in his sleep at age 33, had a promising career with Stations. But if he'd lived to be 100, he might not have brought as many smiles to the sick children whose dreams come true thanks to the Make-a-Wish Foundation.

UNLV Foundation executive Matt Muldoon gets credit for an assist for helping to organize a successful charity golf tournament.

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TROOPER'S EFFORT: Nevada Highway Patrol Trooper Eddie Dutchover has shown professional understatement after nabbing outlaw polygamist Warren Steed Jeffs this week, but some of his new local fans are calling for Dutchover to receive the $100,000 reward that was offered for the sect leader's capture.

If the trooper can't accept it, perhaps the cash could be donated to an NHP relief fund or to a charity for abused children.

At the very least, it's time to give that man a raise.

• John L. Smith's column, reprinted from the Las Vegas Review-Journal, appears on Thursdays on the Appeal's Opinion page. E-mail him at smith@reviewjournal.com or call (702) 383-0295.