Commentary: Big trouble looming for Raggio and Republicans

In the last election, Republicans in the state Senate lost two seats - Sens. Bob Beers and Joe Heck - which also cost the GOP its majority. Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio was reduced to the rank of minority leader while Democrat Sen. Steven Horsford moved into the big office with a 12-9 governing majority.

Look for things to get even worse next year.

Sen. Warren Hardy has resigned and his seat is anything but secure. GOP caucus leaders are trying to bequeath that seat to liberal Assemblyman Joe Hardy. So make book on a divisive moderate-vs.-conservative primary fight next June.

Ditto the re-election race for Sen. Dennis Nolan. This Republican In Name Only (RINO) could be facing a moderate-vs.-conservative challenge from Assemblyman Chad Christensen - unless Assembly Minority Leader Heidi Gansert quits to run for governor. If that happens, Christensen might well decide to stay in the Assembly and run for Gansert's vacant minority leader position. But even if that scenario plays out, Nolan - a major league tax-hiking nanny-stater if there ever was one - will still likely get a tough primary challenger.

State Sens. Randolph Townsend, Mark Amodei and Maurice Washington are all termed out, and expensive and divisive moderate-vs.-conservative primaries are already shaping up in all three races. Because of the potential for primary blood to be spilled, none of those seats is a slam dunk for GOP retention.

Meanwhile, the only potentially vulnerable Democrat in the state Senate right now is perhaps the seat of Sen. Joyce Woodhouse. But with just seven months to go before filing, no powerhouse Republican has stepped forward to express even passing interest in challenging the vulnerable freshman Democrat.

Which brings us to next year's barn-burner.

You'll pardon Republican state Sen. Barbara Cegavske if she's constantly looking over her shoulder these days, as she has a bright red bulls-eye painted on her back by Nevada Democrats who are still salivating over their political kills named Beers and Heck in '08. And you can bet they're ready to load up with at least another million buckaroos to take out Cegavske next year.

Making matters even worse for Cegavske is that, unlike in the Beers and Heck races last year, the D's appear to have recruited a candidate who's not an airhead, Tammy Peterson (www.peterson

forsenate.com).

However, a Peterson challenge to Cegavske might not be the worst thing for Republicans. You see, there's still the possibility that Cegavske could opt to run for a constitutional office next year instead. Which would mean Republicans would have to defend this seat without the advantages of incumbency. In other words, probably kiss it good-bye.

But there is light at the end of this tunnel for Republicans.

Just kidding. No, there's not.

• Chuck Muth is president of Citizen Outreach.Contact him at chuck@citi

zenoutreach.com.