Numbers can shed light on politicking

With just a few weeks left before the mid-tem elections, many of you have a lot on your minds. If you have a job, how secure is that job in a recession? Perhaps you are unsure about how taxes and the new health care plan will effect your ability to pay the expenses of everyday life? Can you save money for retirement, college or other personal goals? Will your vote actually make any difference for your future and that of the nation? I have never seen such anxiety in all my years as a financial planner and, honestly, there is good reason for it.

As you may have guessed from past articles over the many years that I have written for this paper, I am a person who looks at numbers objectively. During this campaign season, I have seen numbers used subjectively to suit the purpose of the candidate and this does a serious injustice to the voter who must decide who best to represent their views and interests in Congress. Let's just look at some numbers without any spin right now and see if this will help you, the voter to decide.

For some of this data, I went to the U.S. Department of Labor website, Department of Education, Social Security Administration and the Congressional Budget Office.

First, for those of you looking for a job, the CBO forecasts growth in our economy to be modest at 2.8 percent through the rest of the year with growth slowing to 2 percent in 2011. Fastest growing sector is IT, or information technology and computer design with 18-26 percent expected job growth through 2014. Most jobs in the IT sector require a minimum AA college degree. Only about half of high school students in this country's 50 largest cities graduate in four years. The U.S. ranks 17th among other nations in high school graduation and 14th in college graduation.

Between 1940 and 1994, 202 million Americans were born accounting for 77 percent of the population. Of that 77 percent, 75.8 percent are baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964. The boomers did not create a boom that followed. Many waited to have children or had fewer or no children at all, so the generations that must pay the burden of entitlement benefits for this disproportionate part of the population are smaller and more spread out in age.

Health care spending continues to grow at an average higher than GDP. Slow growth in private spending is expected to be offset by public spending, reaching 19.5 percent of GDP as early as 2017. The growth of costs for the government's major health care programs is the largest source of budgetary uncertainty. Growth rates suggest that total federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid could go as high as 22 percent of GDP by 2050.

U.S. debt currently is over 13 trillion dollars. Nearly two-thirds is the public debt owed to businesses, individuals and other governments. The rest is owed by the government to itself in the form of government account securities, mostly held in the Social Security Trust Fund. U.S. debt is the largest in the world. U.S. debt ballooned 50 percent between 2000-2007. Government programs put in place after the economic meltdown in late 2008 have raised U.S. debt from from 9 to 13 trillion dollars. Debt is now 89 percent of GDP up from 51 percent in 1988.

Before voting, go to the CBO website and read the July 2010 issue brief "Federal debt and the risk of a financial crisis." In it are only two approaches to this crisis. Unless policymakers restrain the growth of spending, increase revenues significantly as a percentage of GDP or a combination of both, U.S. debt will rise to unsupportable levels. Simply put, we can address this now or later, but the later it gets, the more painful the adjustment.

I am not endorsing any candidate or party here. The facts are telling you what we as a nation need to do and soon. Look at the candidates, their promises and platforms and find those who are realistic about what needs to be done in order to prevent fiscal crisis in the future. Those who do not adhere to fiscal restraint should be replaced.

I have looked at these figures changing for many years now as it was part of my job in choosing investment options for my clients. When I look at the current levels of debt and the obligations we have in the future, I get that sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. That is fear my friends and if you do not feel it, you should. Numbers don't lie, people do.

If you want a secure future for yourself and your family, make good choices this November (or at least the best available) and hold those you elect accountable for both their promises and their actions. We cannot afford to look the other way and hope that everything turns out OK. The odds (by the numbers) are against us.

• Carol Perry has been a Northern Nevada resident since 1983. You can reach her at carol_perry@worldnet.att.net.