Jim Hartman
Vacationing on the tropical Caribbean island of St. Croix for New Year’s, President Biden, now 80, and his family reportedly will discuss the 2024 election – less about whether he will run and more about timing of his announcement.
First lady Jill Biden, said in September to be skeptical about a second presidential campaign, is now reported to be “all in” for 2024. Biden is expected to declare his candidacy before April.
In a CNN interview Dec. 15, outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Biden should run again and expressed themselves eager to support his 2024 reelection bid.
Buoyed by the midterm election results, it looks like all systems are go.
Democrats seem to be clearing the 2024 field for him. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the biggest Democratic official who appeared to be preparing for a campaign, has announced his decision not to run.
At Biden’s request, the Democratic National Committee is already planning to radically remake its primary calendar. The new calendar would run through states that were pivotal to Biden’s victory in the 2020 nominating fight. It makes South Carolina the nation’s first primary state.
The two things that complicate matters are Biden’s age – he would be 86 at the end of a second term – and poll results indicating even many Democratic voters don’t want him to run again. That includes 94% of Democrats under 30, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll taken this summer, and two-thirds of all voters in this year’s exit polls.
A Biden run is not something most voters want.
A recent USA Today/ Suffolk University survey asked the simple question: “Do you want Joe Biden to run for reelection in 2024, yes or no?” Sixty-seven percent of respondents said no, while only 23 percent said yes.
Another recent survey, this one from Quinnipiac, asked registered voters just as simply: “Would you like to see Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic nominee for president or not?” Sixty-four percent of respondents said no, while 27 percent said yes.
One more. A new Fox News poll asked, “Would you like to see Joe Biden run for president again in 2024 or not?” Sixty-four percent of respondents said no, while 33 percent said yes.
There are additional polls with similar results – enough to conclude that a large majority of voters do not want Biden to run for another term.
All the polls show voters are unhappy with Biden’s job performance. His overall job approval rating is 43 percent in the Real Clear Politics polling average.
But the underlying problem with a Biden second term is the president’s age. He’s 80 years old and has visibly slowed in recent years.
His inability to answer even the most basic questions from handpicked journalists raises serious questions about his mental fitness. He has appeared confused in public settings and regularly misstates important facts.
A poll in August found 59 percent of Americans are concerned about Biden’s mental health.
Biden would be 82 in a reelection campaign, and if elected, would serve until he’s 86. That’s without precedent in American history. Biden is simply too old to be president – it’s an unchangeable reality.
Were the president to opt against reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the Democratic front-runner. But she is even less popular than Biden.
His net-favorable rating, according to the Real Clear Politics average , is negative – 7.9 points. Hers is negative – 15.6 points.
It sometimes seems as if Biden selected Harris as vice president as an insurance policy: No matter how much you dislike me, things could be worse.
With Harris as the lead “back-up” alternative, the Democratic Party establishment is expected to fall in line behind Biden.
Biden’s unfixable problem: a large majority of voters just don’t want him to run in 2024.
E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman1@aol.com.