Jim Hartman
American voters don’t want a Joe Biden and Donald Trump presidential rematch in 2024. An astounding 65 percent of Americans don’t want Biden to run for another term, and 60 percent of voters don’t want Trump to run again.
Yet the two parties are on track to give them exactly this choice.
No Labels is a centrist group of Republicans and Democrats trying to offer voters an alternative. They are organizing to get on the ballot in 2024 if the two major parties give voters another Biden-Trump race.
National co-chairs include Ben Chavis, a civil rights legend, and Joe Lieberman, former Democratic senator and vice-presidential candidate. Former GOP Govs. Larry Hogan and Pat McCrory are also co-chairs.
Polling done for No Labels finds the public open to a third-party candidate, with 59% of voters saying they would consider a moderate independent alternative. No labels is already on the ballot in five states with hopes to qualify in all 50 states.
In the past, a successful third-party ticket has been a quadrennial fantasy. Third-party candidates have been nothing more than spoilers. The most successful recent third-party candidate, Ross Perot, won 19% of the vote and no electoral votes in 1992.
But these are not normal times.
The No Labels organization has credible plans to raise $70 million with major donors identified and already contributing to the organization.
No Labels intends to have a convention next spring after the March primaries when Democratic and GOP nominations should be known. If a better nominee emerges in either party, No Labels would stand down. If the race is Biden-Trump, the group expects to nominate a bipartisan unity ticket.
Who the candidates would be is crucial.
On July 17, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Republican former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman headlined a No Labels event in New Hampshire. Manchin, a No Labels supporter, has not ruled out running as a presidential candidate on their ticket.
A Republican, like Huntsman or New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, might be at the top of the ticket with Manchin as the veep nominee.
An obstacle: No Labels lacks a motivating issue or agenda to mobilize voters. They released a 63-page policy booklet, “Common Sense,” proposing a political middle ground.
No Labels panics Democrats. The Democratic strategy for 2024 is clear: run the same playbook that worked in 2020. Make the election a referendum on Donald Trump. Currently, 57 percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, with only 39 percent favorable.
Democrats are terrified No Labels will ruin their game plan. They fear a third-party ticket would take enough votes away from Biden to elect Trump.
They’ve organized, announcing a super-PAC and enlisting 82-year-old former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt to stop No Labels, including an effort to deny them ballot access.
Many liberal opinion leaders have denounced the No Labels effort.
No Labels should worry Democrats, but Republicans should also be concerned. It threatens their chances, too.
A mid-July Monmouth Poll found 30% of Americans would entertain voting for a third-party “fusion” ticket, comprised of a Democrat and a Republican. Just 5% say they would definitely vote for this option if Biden and Trump are the nominees and another 25% say they would probably vote third-party.
Support for a third-party ticket drops lower when possible candidate names were introduced. A Manchin/Huntsman ticket found definite support from only 2% of voters and another 14% would probably vote for them.
At a minimum, the presence of No Labels may be a wake-up call to both parties. They can do better, and should do better, or face a third-party challenge.
Voters certainly deserve better than a rerun between a then to be 81-year-old president and a 78-year-old former president, both deeply unpopular.
E-mail Jim Hartman at lawdocman1@aol.com.